I wasn’t going to write this post, but I’ve gotten just enough emails and messages on the subject of what the new iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus means for Apple stock that I thought I’d post some quick thoughts for readers here.<\/p>\n
First, the old saying in investing is to buy the rumor and sell the news. As with all Wall Street wisdom, this is a gross oversimplification and only partially true. However, consider that the time to buy the POTENTIAL of the new iPhone and Apple Watch was BEFORE the big event. The risk, of course, was that if the information was disappointing, the stock would have likely taken a \u00a0downturn. As it was, people, and analysts, seemed pleased with what they saw, and the stock has already reacted positively. What this means, is that if you wanted to invest for the short-term based on the fact that felt Apple’s new technology would be good, you are too late.<\/p>\n
Now, if you are looking to invest in Apple NOW, for the short-term, your investment will depend on:<\/p>\n
Before you answer YES to both questions and rush out to buy Apple stock, consider that the consensus is also a resounding YES. In other words, people are expecting this to go well, and to go big. In other words, there is a lot more potential for downside than upside. Four or five million sold isn’t hitting it out of the park, it’s expected. Which means you need crazy gangbusters to surprise on the upside.<\/p>\n
This does not mean the stock price will not go up. In fact, barring any sort of calamity, it’s almost certain Apple’s stock price will rise with the wave of iPhone 6 popularity, especially if the market in general keeps moving upward. Remember, last time Apple released a major new upgrade, its stock raced up to $800 a share, pre-split<\/a>,\u00a0before finally taking a breath. The trick isn’t riding the wave, it’s getting off. As a popular, household name, many people buy Apple stock because they “believe” in the company and it’s future. This is not a bad thing, but especially over the next few months, any big moves up are more likely to be a popularity contest vote than investors taking an in-depth look at the stock. Stick to your plan, whatever it is. Don’t get caught up in “me too” buying.<\/p>\n Of course, I never recommend market-timing or stock-timing. If you get into Apple stock here for the short-term, you need to ask what your goal is.\u00a0If you do buy, and if the stock does race ahead, consider when you want to take some profits off the table, or sell altogether. In other words, have a plan and stick to it. Don’t get caught up in the idea that it can’t go too high. It can, and it probably will, eventually. Know what you are going to do (when\/if to sell) BEFORE you buy.<\/p>\n If you are looking at a long-term investment, things are a lot easier. Assuming these phones are a hit, they are solid profit generators for the company for the next few years. The new Apple Watch gives the company a shot at “the next big thing.” Almost forgotten, but maybe even more important is the Apple Pay technology. If that were to catch on, the company may have a whole new revenue stream. And, just as important, even with this uptick in price, Apple still pays nearly a 2% dividend<\/a>. All things considered, you could find a lot more risk in a stock paying 2%.<\/p>\n This blog is about personal finance and smart investment. I don’t pick stocks. I never have. This is just some thoughts on where things stand after the press event.<\/p>\n This is not a recommendation or offer to buy or sell securities. I currently own Apple stock, although that could change at any time without any notice.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I wasn’t going to write this post, but I’ve gotten just enough emails and messages on the subject of what the new iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus means for Apple stock that I thought I’d post some quick thoughts for readers here. First, the old saying in investing is to buy the rumor and sell the news. As with all Wall Street wisdom, this is a gross oversimplification and only partially true. However, consider that the time to buy the POTENTIAL of the new iPhone and Apple Watch was BEFORE the big event. The risk, of course, was that if the information was disappointing, the stock would have likely taken a \u00a0downturn. As it was, people, and analysts, seemed pleased with what they saw, and the stock has already reacted positively. What this means, is that if you wanted to invest for the short-term based on the fact that felt Apple’s new technology would be good, you are too late. Now, if you are looking to invest in Apple NOW, for the short-term, your investment will depend on: a) How well the products are received by the real consumer. – Potential risks here involve a new “antenna-gate” type of … <\/p>\n