accountability

How High Will Bitcoin Go?

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bitcoin gold investing

Wondering how high bitcoin will go? One analyst says $55,000+ by end of year 2021. Let’s keep an eye on him. Update: Analyst accountability is a big thing at Finance Gourmet. Sometimes, I wish watching, rewarding, and outing analysts was a full-time job I could get somewhere. Until then, it’s time to give out some credit, where credit is due for bitcoin analyst Michael Novogratz and his November 2020 call, as bitcoin prices hit 40,000, just below his bitcoin prediction of $55,000 by EOY 2021. Originally published 11/18/2020. Michael Novogratz – November 18, 2020: Some recent bitcoin buzz comes courtesy of Michael Novogratz who is out saying that bitcoin prices could rise to $55,000 or $60,000 by the end of 2021. With bitcoin trading near $18,000 that’s more than just being bullish. Is he right, and just how high will bitcoin go? Good Bitcoin Analysis? Unlike most financial publications, I believe in financial analyst accountability. Anyone can blurt out a prediction, hope to be right, and then go around telling people that you called it, while failing to mention any other “calls” that weren’t so good. So, let’s take a look at Mr. Novogratz’s track record as a bitcoin predictor. …

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Jeremy Grantham Calls “Epic Bubble”

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stock market bubble

One of my favorite themes here on Finance Gourmet is accountability. Accountability for your financial advisor, accountability for talking heads on money TV, accountability for analysts making “calls” about the market. Too often, all of these predictions and calls are simply forgotten until one of them is “right” and then, they won’t shut up about it. I try, in my huge amounts of spare time (Hah!) to bring a little bit of accountability to the big names and headlines that fly by. Today, it’s Jeremy Grantham. Epic Bubble Every article with the name Jeremy Grantham in it makes sure to “credit” him with predicting the housing bubble of 2007. Some also credit him with predicting the dot-com bubble of 2009. That’s pretty cool, but it is now 2021. Wondering about the TurboTax card? What has he predicted in the last 11 years? Have any of those predictions been good … or bad? Never mind that, the finance press says. He predicted those two things over a decade ago and now he says, “Epic bubble!” Print it! Jeremy Grantham Track Record First off, let’s give Mr. Grantham some credit. In January 2018, he predicted a “melt-up” in the stock market. He …

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Abby Joseph Cohen Track Record Accurate As A Broken Indicator Light

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indicator light

I fired off a quick post yesterday about the “news” that Goldman Sach’s Abby Joseph Cohen declared the recession over.  If you missed it, I made the point that an arrow pointing up painted on a wall had just as accurate of a track record as Ms. Cohen did over the past decade or so.  For some reason, Cohen has a set of groupies, or fan boys, or whatever that always like to remind people of when she was “right” and, of course, always forget about when she was wrong. The truth is that Abby Joseph Cohen has never been “right”.  If your answer to a yes/no question is always the same, you aren’t getting the questions right.  You are just happening upon the questions that were written with a yes answer.  That isn’t intelligence or ability, that’s statistics. Still, so as to avoid anyone showing up and (publicly, so far, it’s only messages) saying that I have forgotten about all the really great “calls” she has made, I offer the following factual data as proof that any upward pointing arrow would have made, and lost, investors just as much money as Abby Joseph Cohen over the last 10 years. …

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