employment numbers

Will Fed Raise Rates Sooner Than Expected?

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fed raise rates

There are several economists out there predicting that rising inflation will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than project. In fact, half of the Fed Board was talking about a rate increase in 2022 instead of the previously telegraphed 2024. But, does that mean The Fed will raise rates sooner than previously stated? Inflation Isn’t Coming All of this is predicated on inflation rising. The concern right now is that prices have been rising this year. This is all true, but this is October and that means the holiday shopping season is upon us, and chances are it won’t look very good come January. We’ve already seen the job reports showing that job growth is slowing despite a supposed worker shortage. Unemployed people spend a lot less at Christmas. But, there is more than that. Employed people who know unemployed people spend less as well due to a fear that they could soon be unemployed as well. Add to that reports that there are going to be supply chain problems, and that container ships have to wait excessive times to get their cargo unloaded by dock workers on the west coast and you end up with a …

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June Jobs and Mid-Year Economy Review

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Monitoring the economy is tricky business. The monthly reports that we get from the government require gathering reams of data over hundreds of hours, and all manner of processing to get us a simple sounding number like, “The U.S. economy added 287,000 new jobs.” Even then, those numbers are routinely readjusted up or down later as more data comes in. The May employment numbers were enough to stop a Fed rate hike in its tracks. Are the new June numbers good enough to put an interest rate increase back on track? June Employment and the Fed Employment numbers are very important to the Fed. A tightening labor market often is visible before any actual signs of inflation. The theory is that lower unemployment forces businesses to offer higher wages in order to attract and retain workers, which will eventually lead them to raise prices in order to cover higher costs. So, if employment jumps too fast, too far, it might be time to take a look at a rate hike. The increasing transparency and ability to buy goods online has shaken this up a bit, however. Just because Macy’s raises prices on something doesn’t mean that you have to pay …

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Economy Outlook 2010 2nd Half – June Job Losses

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Recent new that payrolls fell in June here in the U.S. is bad news for the economy, but maybe not as bad as it is being made out by the headlines. Let’s start with what the numbers are and move on to what they mean. As with all economic statistics, employment numbers are compiled from numerous sources which provide an inconsistent snapshot of job activity from around the country. These numbers are made usable by applying a consistent mathematical methodology to them. This results in numbers that may or may not be in any way accurate. What makes the statistics relevant and useful is that because they are always calculated in the same manner looking at the numbers relative to previous statistics is a valid way to analyze growth or contraction in employment. ….More about personal finance tips. Total Nonfarm Payroll US Department of Labor The “employment number” everyone is talking about today is specifically the total nonfarm payroll numbers and is based upon a combination of data gathered from surveying people (the household survey data) and surveying businesses (the establishment survey data). Much like the Nielsen ratings for television, the numbers gleaned from the surveys are then extrapolated to …

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