market timing

Stock Market Correction in 2019?

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rebalance not predict

Time is running out for all of those financial analysts, pundits, and economists who predicted a market correction, or worse in 2019. As always, there will be no accountability, nor any mention of the failure of these predictions when the same folks predict a correction in 2020 and then try and take credit for “calling the market.” Still, for those of us who don’t shamble along to the daily clutter of the financial media looking for some sort of clicks, it can be a funny exercise to watch. Every year, I tell my self that I’m going to keep a running tally of the “predictions” so I can create an easy to view table showing the failure of the majority of predictions. Unfortunately, that would be a very time consuming task considering the sheer number of financial professionals who confidently make bold predictions to grab a day or two of headlines. Rakuten and Ebates review. Don’t Listen To Predictions The reality, of course, is that nobody really goes out and makes investment decisions or trades based upon some analyst at Dewey, Cheatum, and Howe calling a market top in Spring 2020. In the end, such predictions are really about media …

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Everyone Who Called a Downturn in the First Half of 2019 Is Officially WRONG

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stock market predictions 2019

It is now October. That is the third quarter of 2019. By any, and all, definitions the first half of 2019 is officially over. That means all of those analysts, pundits, economists, and big Wall Street talking heads who predicted a recession or stock market downturn in the first half of 2019 are officially wrong. They were also wrong about the first three-quarters of 2019, but that headline isn’t as catchy. 🙂 There is nothing wrong with that on the surface. Predictions of any kind are risky business. However, a great many of these same people trade on a weird blindness in the financial industry. No one keeps any real track of these predictions. As a result, if these same people go out and make the exact same prediction for next year, they get full credit in the media for “calling” the next downturn without any acknowledgement that they were wrong this year (and maybe several of the previous years.) Investing By Predictions is Dumb Past performance is not an indicator of future results. This statement is mandated to show up on all kinds of investing materials by regulators. It is a hopeless cry to the masses to not invest …

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Why You Shouldn’t Worry About a Market Top

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market top plan

Worried about whether or not the market is overvalued? Did the markets set ANOTHER record? You aren’t alone. Seemingly every day, a major financial website or magazine publishes an article about how the stock market is overvalued, how this is a top, and that you should feel very, very scared. But, should you even bother worrying about a market top? Not if you aren’t talking about short-term investments. If you are talking about a 401k , an IRA, or any other form of long-term investing, you should ignore all the market top talk. What To Do For a Market Top The biggest problem with a market top is knowing WHEN it is going to happen. Remember, the stock market does not move based upon absolute truth. Rather, the stock market is a popularity contest where people vote for companies, or their shares, by buying them, and vote against companies, or their shares, by selling them. It is driven entirely by people (and computer programs made to anticipate people’s reactions, but that is another article). What that means, is even  if the market really is truly overvalued, right now, today, it still does not mean that the sell off will begin …

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There is a catch…

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More coming later today, but a quick note this morning: A MarketWatch article talks about “the most accurate” market timing system but notes that while it is accurate over the long-term, it has “trailed the market for the last decade.” So, long does it take to become inaccurate?