News

Is The Recession Really Over – Recession Ended in June 2009 News Reports Say

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Is the recession really over? That is the question a lot of people are asking today as newspapers, news websites, and television news shows lead with a headline that seems to declare that the economy is back to normal. Of course, this is not at all what is going on. This presents another opportunity to take a quick look at how financial facts and financial reporting are not always in sync. First, the actual event that occurred is that the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, released a statement saying that “a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009.” Obviously, this does NOT mean the economy is back to normal, a fact that the NBER statement goes out of its way to highlight. In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Why is every news outlet in America proclaiming that the recession is over then? Technically, the recession is over, but that doesn’t necessarily mean what people think it means. Assuming the picture below depicts a hypothetical economic …

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Online Bargains Aren’t Always Great Deals Check The Details First

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Black Friday has come and gone. Cyber Monday is history. Yet, online shopping continues in full force. Various reports suggest that online shopping has increased dramatically this year, likely due to the increasing usage of broadband connections in the home, and the draw of huge savings secretly located on the Internet if you can just find the right combination of coupon codes, discount websites, and wholesalers online. However, as always, when it comes to personal finance what you don’t know can hurt you. Make sure you understand all of the details regarding online shopping for bargains. Otherwise, you may get burned. Amazon Makes Online Shopping OK Not long ago, online shopping was the exclusive providence of very specific people, typically techies, and ultra-bargain shoppers who linked together in electronic discount finding groups reminiscent of the old coupon clubs. A few appearances on Oprah by folks like "Coupon Mom" helped drive online shopping and deal finding to the forefront of the American consciousness. But, what finally pushed online shopping over the edge from the wary, angst filled, activity it used to be to a common shopping method used by teenagers, little old ladies, and the technological inept alike was the legitimizing …

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2009 Stock Market Recovery Starts Now?

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Recently, people have begun to draw all the wrong conclusions about the stock market for all the wrong reasons.  It is a common phenomenon and it happens every time the stock market moves up or down long enough for the average citizen whose only market investments are in IRAs or 401(k) plans to notice. The first bad conclusion is that now is the time to pull money out of the market.  While this market has fallen long and fallen fast, it is almost always the case that when the average person looks to get out of their investments, they have already fallen significantly which means that getting out now just means locking in losses, especially because precious few of them have any idea about when or how they will get back in. The second miscalculation that continuously happens to virtually everyone who is not a seasoned investor is the mistaken notion that the stock market is moving and pricing based on now, as in today.  It isn’t. The stock market is now, and has always been, priced based on the future.  Investors buy stock not because the stock will be higher today, but because it will be higher in the …

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How Safe Are Municipal Bonds

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People are always asking me how safe municipal bonds are.  The answer is: They’re Safe. Note that we are talking about BONDS here, NOT Notes, which are a whole different deal.  Unless you are an expert or near-expert bond trader, you should stay away from any and all notes of any kind except those from the US Treasury. But, that can’t be the end of it.  After all, there are some examples of muni bonds going sour, most notably Orange County’s default on some of its muni bond debt.  And, of course, various municipal bonds which were pegged to specific projects or revenue streams have gone belly up.  Of course, it is pretty easy to spot which ones have that kind of risk.  Bonds fully backed by the state, county, or city are generally as safe as you can get without investing in a US Treasury.  Also pretty safe are bonds back by utilities (water and sewer especially) since people have to pay for those one way or another.  The ones you have to watch out for are the ones that are for building a specific project and then funded with the revenues from that project.  Common examples are things …

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Bear Market – Never Mind

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The stock market dipped below the magic 20 percent needed to call it a bear market yesterday. Media outlets were quick to throw up their bear market headlines, but the markets rallied and exposed the headline game as a gimmick with flashy words.

SEC Thinks Prospectuses Are Too Big!

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laugh I laughed so hard I ended up crying. The [tag]SEC[/tag] is concerned that the prospectuses that mutual fund companies send to their clients are too big and full of legal mumbo jumbo to be useful to the general public. How many of you think that mutual fund companies WILLINGLY CHOOSE to spend the money to develop, write, print, and mail a 38-page book to your house, not just once, but every single year you own the fund?

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Bear Stearns Goes Belly Up

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The official headline is J.P. Morgan buys Bear Stearns for $2 a share. The real headline is that for the first time since the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, a major US bank has gone belly up.