China Is Officially a Currency Manipulator

China Is Officially a Currency Manipulator 1

China has been a currency manipulator for years. Everyone knows it. China knows it. The U.S. knows it. Every economist in the world knows it. China has an enormous trade surplus with the world. Typically, when this happens, the value of that currency rises making its exports more expensive to other countries. This, in turn eventually reduces the amount of imports a country makes, thereby reducing the overall trade deficit. China, which requires its citizens to hold their savings in state run banks, uses the large amounts of currency it generates sending exports around the world to ensure that the value of the Yaun never gets above a certain amount. In turn, this both keeps its exports cheap, and prevents any closing of the trade gap between its trading partners. None of this is secret, or remotely new information Trump Calls Out China Currency Actions What is new, is that usually no one says it out loud, and no one ever actually makes it official by labeling China a currency manipulator. So, what does it mean now that China has been officially labeled? Nothing. You see, since China has been doing this forever, and the other countries have known about …

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Vacation Almost Over

Wow. What a crazy time to be on vacation. Let’s see… The Fed raised interest rates. There was a bit of hiccup regarding that. In my humble opinion, this is the last “freebie” interest rate hike the Fed has in its quiver. In other words, this interest rate hike probably doesn’t have the possibility of tanking the economy. But, the next one might be a different story. If the Fed pulls the trigger on the next hike too quickly, that could be the one that pops the whole economic expansion and heads us into the next recession. If you are a conspiracy theorist, it’s too late to affect the mid-term elections, but a series of ill-timed rate hikes toward the end of this year, and into the next drops the economy into recession just in time for the next Presidential election. That’s pretty far fetched, that they would do it on purpose, but it could happen nonetheless. (I like that nonetheless is one word 🙂 Also, a trade war! Again. Not just with China this time, but with Europe and Canada?!? Actually, there are a few glitches in our trade with Canada, but this taking a club to some pealing …

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What Is a Trade War?

china trade war

As part of his campaign for President, Donald Trump offered up some “tough talk” on China. Specifically, Mr. Trump has advocated for labeling China as a currency manipulator. There is a specific provision U.S. law for what happens to countries labeled as such. Labeling China would trigger those actions. Is Trump right about China currency manipulator status? As with many things in the law, there is a difference between the legal definition, and what is the common reality, if you will. China IS a currency manipulator under pretty much any definition you like, except the one that matters.  Typically, a country lets the value of its currency fluctuate based upon market demand. China can, and does, ensure that the value of its currency does not vary outside of of parameters it sets. This is what currency manipulation is. The reason currency manipulation is a problem for America is that usually with a large number of imports, the exporter’s currency will start to increase in value relative to the importer. That makes the exporter’s goods more expensive and the importing country buys less of them. This keeps trade deficits smaller, and on a larger scale, makes the importing country’s own goods …

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