Investing

PIMCO Equity Funds Win Again

by

PIMCO is synonymous in the investing industry with bond mutual funds. More specifically, PIMCO is synonymous with Bill Gross and the PIMCO Total Return fund, which is the world’s biggest, and one of the best, bond mutual funds. However, PIMCO actually offers a full range of investment products, including equity mutual funds. As Reuters reports, PIMCO actually managed to win the best large company equities award from the Lipper Fund Awards. I’m not sure whether to mock Reuters for repeatedly using Pimco, when everyone knows it’s PIMCO, or if there is an AP Style rule I’m missing. Either way, the bond mutual fund giant won the award last year as well, marking two straight years at the top. Before you load all your money up into PIMCO StockPlus TotalReturn or PIMCO StockPlus Short Strategy fund, it is interesting to note that PIMCO’s funds of this nature aren’t very traditional. Rather than owning shares of publicly traded U.S. companies, these funds have a lot of investments in various derivatives and contracts. This allows PIMCO to profit from moves of a macro nature rather than being right about specific companies. There is an advantage to this form of investing. For example, if …

Read More

Dow 13,000 What Does It Mean?

by

As always, the mainstream media perked up about the stock market and investing world when the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed the made-f0r-headlines 13,000 level. The guys that write news story headlines love round numbers, maybe because everyone else does too. But, just like our infatuation with round number birthdays, such as turning 40, there is no real difference between Dow 12,956 and Dow 13,000, just like there is no real difference between being 39 and being 40 years old. Is Dow 13,000 Meaningful? The 13,000 number is purely psychological, but it does provide an opportunity to take a look at how the stock market and the economy are doing lately. First, and foremost, most storied correctly noted that this is the first time the Dow has managed to gain the 13 K level since 2008. That is significant for two reasons. One, 2008 basically marks the beginning of the stock market crash caused by the bursting of the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis, all of which triggered what has become known as The Great Recession. Two, it means that maybe some investors should be seeing a recovery in their portfolios. It is tempting to draw the conclusion that …

Read More

Meredith Whitney Muni Bond Defaults Fails to Materialize

by

Remember Meredith Whitney? Right about now, she’s probably hoping you forgot. Whitney is the analyst who said, “There’s not a doubt in my mind that you will see a spate of municipal bond defaults…” She went on to say that there could be 50 to 100 sizable defaults or more and that those defaults would amount to hundreds billions of dollars worth of defaults. Municipal bond markets reacted by bidding up the yield for muni bonds. Most experts didn’t buy Whitney’s prediction. Even I wrote a 2011 article about how safe are muni bonds when people kept asking me about it. Of course, none of those stories was a big, inflammatory prediction of doom from a “name-brand” financial analyst. Analyst Predicts Muni Bond Defaults Wall Street and the financial markets are a very weird place. Preeminent analysts are created by making market calls or predictions that come to pass, especially when they make calls that no one else saw coming. Ironically, those same analysts aren’t necessarily held accountable when they make bad calls. Goldman Sachs’ Abbey Joseph Cohen made a name for herself by making ever higher market calls during the technology fueled stock market bubble of the late nineties. …

Read More

Stock Market 2011 Results

by

The results of the stock market for 2011 are basically flat. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average can claim a small gain, the S&P 500 Index ended 2011 with a small loss. Likewise, the NASDAQ ended down for 2011 as well. 2011 Dow Jones Up The Dow finished up for 2011 thanks in part to the makeup of the index. The stocks in the Down Jones Industrial Average contain only large U.S. companies. While financial companies make up a significant number of the stocks, their impact is limited because the Dow Jones Average is a price-weighted index. That means that higher priced stocks have more influence on the average than lower priced stocks. Most financial stocks have very low share prices these days, and as a result, their performance doesn’t drag as heavily on the average. Bank of America was the worst performer in the Dow having lost 58.3 percent for the year. The Dow Industrials finished up 5.5 percent for the year. That is three consecutive positive years for the Dow, although nobody is dancing in the streets over this year’s performance, where many components had flat or down years. The top 5 Dow stocks for 2011 were McDonald’s …

Read More

S&P 500 Down for Year 2011

by

Reuters has an article today noting that the S&P500 index is in negative territory for the 2011 year. That’s bad news for the huge number of investors invested in index funds. The benchmark for many mutual funds and other investment’s performance is down approximately 3 percent year to date. To get make the market index positive for 2011 would take a return above 1,257.64. Ironically, most investors are used to getting a so-called “Santa Claus” rally at the end of the year as money managers position their balance sheets and investments ahead of end of year reporting. However, this year, the problems in Europe, their affect on the Euro, and the potential collateral damage in the U.S. markets has kept investors from being in a merry mood. As the year winds down, trading volume typically declines in the markets. Mutual funds, hedge fund managers and other money managers that are up for the year, sell everything and hold cash through the end of the year to lock in their gains. Smaller investors, aware of the holidays, also position themselves to have only those investments they wish to hold for the long-term. That not only frees them up from having to …

Read More

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Not a Lost Decade

by

Bloomberg has an interesting snippet about that so-called “lost decade” everyone keeps talking about. It turns out if you had invested in the stocks of the S&P 500 equally (equal weight) back at the market peak of March 24, 2000, you would have had a 66 percent gain through December 2, 2011, not a zero percent gain. Unfortunately, most people who invest in the S&P 500 Index do so in the same way the index is calculated, capitalization-weighted. That means that you buy more of the bigger companies and less of the smaller ones. There are some index funds and ETFs that allow you to invest in the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index. There are actually numerous ways in which this was not a lost decade for investors, most importantly, if you KEPT INVESTING, which is what both savvy and not-so savvy investors did when they did not turn off their 401k contributions through this turbulent decade. Those investors could have much more money today than the beginning of the decade and are primed for a much bigger recovery when the U.S. economy finally pulls out of its doldrums and moves ahead. More on this later…

IBM Boosts Share Buyback Again

by

IBM must really hate the idea of paying a big dividend. Every year, it seems, IBM authorizes billions of more dollars for share buybacks while increasing its dividend by the smallest amount possible. Then, the company goes on to crow about how it has returned "… over $109 billion since 2008 to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends." Anyone want to guess how much went to share repurchases and how much went to dividends? If you are thinking 50/50, you aren’t even close. As The Register points out, the share buybacks are a lot more beneficial for IBM executives hoping to keep the earnings per share, or EPS, growing at the proper rate to "earn" their bonuses than they are for shareholders looking to increase the value of their holdings. Of course, there is nothing illegal or even unethical about IBM’s giant share buybacks, but it does raise the question, "Can’t IBM come up with anything better to spend its money on than its own stock?" If not, shouldn’t shareholders just get a check instead of the world’s biggest pile of treasury stock? The company authorized an additional $7 billion dollars to buy its own stock this time around …

Read More

Stock Market 4th Quarter Turn Around

by

Sometimes it seems like the stock market is just messing with people. After seemingly running off of a cliff to end the third quarter of 2011, the market has recently staged a rally. Take a look at a chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and you’ll see a low point on October 3, 2011. It’s almost like the market wanted to make sure that your third quarter statements looked bad before any sort of upward movement. Of course, there is a long way to go until the end of the year and pressing economic matters like the debt crisis in Europe, the joint budget cutting committee and an unemployment rate that won’t go down are still to be resolved. For the time being, non-day trading investors should remember that short-term movements in the stock market are notoriously difficult to predict. End of Year Portfolio Rebalancing Many experts recommend rebalancing your long-term portfolios like retirement accounts (IRAs, 401k, and other retirement plans) once a year. Traditionally, many people do it near the end of the year. If you haven’t rebalanced your portfolio since last year, it’s a good time to start thinking about doing it soon.

2011 Stock Market Update Q3

by

The third quarter just closed on September 30th and it was not a pretty sight for short-term investors. The S&P 500 closed at 1,131.42 which is down 14 percent for the third-quarter. It started the year by opening on January 3rd (the 1st and 2nd were Saturday and Sunday, respectively) at 1,257.62.  That is a drop of a little over 10 percent year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 5.74 percent year to date. The stock market took a huge dive starting July 21st and has never pulled itself back up. For those of you looking for the culprit, let me help you out. The debt ceiling deal was reached at the end of July, which means the 21st was pretty much the height of the shenanigans. The markets have had no truly good news since to pull themselves back up by. Outlook for 2011 4th Quarter Stock Market Don’t expect the news cycle to save the stock market during the fourth quarter of 2011. In the 4th quarter, we’ll see increasingly competitive rhetoric building in the Republican Presidential primary, the product of the debt ceiling committee, which most are projecting will fail, and the start of …

Read More

Is Groupon Public Yet?

by

Has Google Already Beating Groupon? Not long ago, Google offered to buy Groupon for $6 billion. Soon thereafter, Groupon did another round of private equity financing that essentially paid off company founders and early investors such that they have already locked in sizable gains. That might be a very good thing since Groupon seems to be in trouble before it even goes public. Update: Groupon has updated its IPO filing documents again. Follow the link for the latest. Groupon’s IPO Filing Groupon has already had to adjust the documents it originally filed in order to do an initial public offering (IPO) of stock. It de-emphasized a widely mocked financial metric that essentially didn’t count certain expenses. That isn’t a huge thing by itself, although it does potentially show what Groupon thinks of the sophistication level (or lack thereof) of those who would buy Groupon’s IPO. Groupon’s management took the somewhat controversial step of trying to comment on all the negative publicity its IPO has been getting by sending out a company-wide email to employees saying exactly the kinds of things that you aren’t allowed to say during the SEC mandated “quiet period” before a public offering. Of course, they were …

Read More