recession

Jeremy Grantham Predictions Reviewed

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Jeremy Grantham Predictions Reviewed 1

Updated 2/20/24 One year almost to the day, here we are with Jeremey Grantham predicting… wait for it… a bubble! Of course, a bubble. I guess we can call him a permabear now. He must not believe everything he says because his fund is still in business. Maybe he just says these things to get headlines. It works. Updated 02/01/2023 According to a Marketwatch article, “Man credited with calling the 2008 crisis says the next 20 years in the stock market will ‘break a lot of hearts.” Whew. That’s a lot to unpack. Take a closer look at Jeremy Grantham predictions. Let’s start with a 20-year call being virtually worthless. In the next 20 years, I too predict the stock market will have rough periods. I also predict growth, a big year, a terrible year, a sidewise year, and a general overall trend up fueled at some points by growth, and some points by inflation. I mean, seriously, pretty much everything will happen at least once during the next 20 years. Was The Prediction Really That Great? As I pointed out in an earlier article, there is a staggering amount of back-patting, and “See I was right!” when it comes …

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Top 4 Places to Save Money During Recession

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i bond

It is looking less and less like the U.S. economy will achieve the promised land of a soft-landing and will instead end up in a recession. It may turn out to be a shallow recession, but the economy is not typically forgiving of rapid increases in interest rates. If hiring falls off before the holiday season, then look out below. Where To Save Money During Recession Making smart personal finance decisions during a recession is critical to avoid losing progress on your goals. The four places are the best way to save money during recession and even depressions. Money Market Account – No it’s not sexy, but it is safe, and it should pay more than your basic savings account. Get at least three months of expenses put aside in case you are one of the unfortunate ones who lose their job during a recession. The silver lining on recessions is that rising interest rates means earning more money on your savings accounts and money market accounts. Consider a high-yield online savings account from a bank you trust to earn even more. Pay Off Debt – Alright, this is cheating. Paying off debt isn’t technically saving money, but it will …

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Upcoming Correction or Stock Market Crash

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finance investing news

Here it comes. No, not the stock market crash. No, not a stock market correction, either. OK. Well, maybe those things are coming. But, what most definitely IS coming are the analysts’ notes, financial stories, and money website articles about a possible 10% correction, or even 20% crash. How To Get Credit For Predicting The Crash You’ve seen the ads a hundred times on the internet. “He predicted the real estate crash, now he recommends this one company!” So, how do you get credit for calling a stock market correction or stock market crash, anyway? The sad reality is that it doesn’t take much. As long as you have some sort of statement, article, analysis, or investor note floating around out there mentioning a crash or correction when one actually happens, you (and your PR department) simply rush out to take credit. Whether the financial media decides to buy it depends a bit on how long ago your “prediction” happened, and how accurate it was. But, as I’ve tried to point out time and again here on Finance Gourmet and other places I do financial writing for, these predictions aren’t always what they are cracked up to be. Often, the …

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ANOTHER Stock Market Correction?

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correction stock market

Monday’s trading left the S&P 500 down a big chunk, and closing in on another stock market correction for the year. As we’ve talked about before, the stock market this year is very volatile moving up and down in big moves as investors, and their computer programs, make trades based upon how they think the economy will play out among the coronavirus issue. The most recent trend has been down. A Stock Market Correction The definition of a stock market correction is a decline of 10%. The catch these days is that the stock market peaks are often the result of a fast runup in the markets. As a result, the first three or four percent of any correction is nothing more than taking the top off of a potentially unwarranted wave that rose too fast. Check out my Acorns review So, here in we are in September facing down another correction for the market during 2019. As I write this, the stock market isn’t quite down enough to count as a recession, but it may very well get there later today, or even tomorrow. It is also possible the computer algorithms get tripped and start buying. Either way, the …

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Will The Fed Trigger a Recession?

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Will the Federal Reserve trigger the next recession? The Fed is meeting and most analysts expect that they will signal that they are making no changes in their plan to move forward with at least two more rate hikes this year despite the weakest first quarter economic growth in three years. More Rate Hikes or Bust The Fed is still trying to work its way out of the “historically low” interest rate environment it has been forced to use to keep the economy upright since the Great Recession a few years ago. The trouble is that despite years of economic expansion, none of those years have come across as particularly strong. In fact, with just two exceptions in the last few years, every time the Fed thought the time was right to raise rates, new, bad economic news came out to derail their plans. This time, however, the Fed looks like it will not be deterred by any run-of-the-mill negative data. Even as inflation falls. Fed officials are blowing off the poor first quarter of economic performance. They say that they fill it is temporary and the economy will recover and continue to grow at a better rate, as soon …

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Best Argument For a Coming Recession

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no inflation

Recently, I wrote about how lots of various financial analysts and pundits predicting a coming stock market crash or imminent recession are more interested in trying to take credit for making a guess than in accurately predicting what the facts actually support. However, there is one very good case for predicting a recession coming in the next few years. Predicting Recessions It is as likely as not that the next recession will trigger the next stock market correction. Of course, the opposite has been known to happen as well. Most recently, the internet bubble popping took the economy with it, when it caused the bankruptcy and fire sale of dozens of formerly high-spending technology companies and sent their employees flooding onto the market, just when the demand for them vanished. On the other hand, the slow motion implosion of the housing market, and its affects on poorly leveraged, and managed, banking companies, followed by their panicked actions to stay alive, is what caused the so-called Great Recession of the Bush the Younger era. Is Acorns safe? Read this review. These days, most analysts like to predict a stock market crash based on “knowing” that the market is over-valued, or propped up …

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Is The Recession Really Over – Recession Ended in June 2009 News Reports Say

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Is the recession really over? That is the question a lot of people are asking today as newspapers, news websites, and television news shows lead with a headline that seems to declare that the economy is back to normal. Of course, this is not at all what is going on. This presents another opportunity to take a quick look at how financial facts and financial reporting are not always in sync. First, the actual event that occurred is that the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, released a statement saying that “a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009.” Obviously, this does NOT mean the economy is back to normal, a fact that the NBER statement goes out of its way to highlight. In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Why is every news outlet in America proclaiming that the recession is over then? Technically, the recession is over, but that doesn’t necessarily mean what people think it means. Assuming the picture below depicts a hypothetical economic …

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