stock market

Dow 13,000 What Does It Mean?

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As always, the mainstream media perked up about the stock market and investing world when the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed the made-f0r-headlines 13,000 level. The guys that write news story headlines love round numbers, maybe because everyone else does too. But, just like our infatuation with round number birthdays, such as turning 40, there is no real difference between Dow 12,956 and Dow 13,000, just like there is no real difference between being 39 and being 40 years old. Is Dow 13,000 Meaningful? The 13,000 number is purely psychological, but it does provide an opportunity to take a look at how the stock market and the economy are doing lately. First, and foremost, most storied correctly noted that this is the first time the Dow has managed to gain the 13 K level since 2008. That is significant for two reasons. One, 2008 basically marks the beginning of the stock market crash caused by the bursting of the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis, all of which triggered what has become known as The Great Recession. Two, it means that maybe some investors should be seeing a recovery in their portfolios. It is tempting to draw the conclusion that …

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Stock Market 2011 Results

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The results of the stock market for 2011 are basically flat. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average can claim a small gain, the S&P 500 Index ended 2011 with a small loss. Likewise, the NASDAQ ended down for 2011 as well. 2011 Dow Jones Up The Dow finished up for 2011 thanks in part to the makeup of the index. The stocks in the Down Jones Industrial Average contain only large U.S. companies. While financial companies make up a significant number of the stocks, their impact is limited because the Dow Jones Average is a price-weighted index. That means that higher priced stocks have more influence on the average than lower priced stocks. Most financial stocks have very low share prices these days, and as a result, their performance doesn’t drag as heavily on the average. Bank of America was the worst performer in the Dow having lost 58.3 percent for the year. The Dow Industrials finished up 5.5 percent for the year. That is three consecutive positive years for the Dow, although nobody is dancing in the streets over this year’s performance, where many components had flat or down years. The top 5 Dow stocks for 2011 were McDonald’s …

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S&P 500 Down for Year 2011

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Reuters has an article today noting that the S&P500 index is in negative territory for the 2011 year. That’s bad news for the huge number of investors invested in index funds. The benchmark for many mutual funds and other investment’s performance is down approximately 3 percent year to date. To get make the market index positive for 2011 would take a return above 1,257.64. Ironically, most investors are used to getting a so-called “Santa Claus” rally at the end of the year as money managers position their balance sheets and investments ahead of end of year reporting. However, this year, the problems in Europe, their affect on the Euro, and the potential collateral damage in the U.S. markets has kept investors from being in a merry mood. As the year winds down, trading volume typically declines in the markets. Mutual funds, hedge fund managers and other money managers that are up for the year, sell everything and hold cash through the end of the year to lock in their gains. Smaller investors, aware of the holidays, also position themselves to have only those investments they wish to hold for the long-term. That not only frees them up from having to …

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Market Up on Good Economic News

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Just a quick update today: The stock markets ticked up today on a little bit more good economic news. Following recent good labor market news and the Fed holding interest rates at zero, comes statistics showing last weeks jobless claims were at a 3 1/2 year low. Also, several large companies reported good results. Furthermore, two regional business surveys from the Federal Reserve showed better than expected growth for December. Finally, the general business conditions index for New York was higher again showing an increase in both new orders and hiring. That’s yet more good news for the job market. We’ll have new articles about end of year tax strategies, financial planning for those in extreme circumstances, and more in the coming days.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index Not a Lost Decade

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Bloomberg has an interesting snippet about that so-called “lost decade” everyone keeps talking about. It turns out if you had invested in the stocks of the S&P 500 equally (equal weight) back at the market peak of March 24, 2000, you would have had a 66 percent gain through December 2, 2011, not a zero percent gain. Unfortunately, most people who invest in the S&P 500 Index do so in the same way the index is calculated, capitalization-weighted. That means that you buy more of the bigger companies and less of the smaller ones. There are some index funds and ETFs that allow you to invest in the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index. There are actually numerous ways in which this was not a lost decade for investors, most importantly, if you KEPT INVESTING, which is what both savvy and not-so savvy investors did when they did not turn off their 401k contributions through this turbulent decade. Those investors could have much more money today than the beginning of the decade and are primed for a much bigger recovery when the U.S. economy finally pulls out of its doldrums and moves ahead. More on this later…

Stock Market 4th Quarter Turn Around

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Sometimes it seems like the stock market is just messing with people. After seemingly running off of a cliff to end the third quarter of 2011, the market has recently staged a rally. Take a look at a chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and you’ll see a low point on October 3, 2011. It’s almost like the market wanted to make sure that your third quarter statements looked bad before any sort of upward movement. Of course, there is a long way to go until the end of the year and pressing economic matters like the debt crisis in Europe, the joint budget cutting committee and an unemployment rate that won’t go down are still to be resolved. For the time being, non-day trading investors should remember that short-term movements in the stock market are notoriously difficult to predict. End of Year Portfolio Rebalancing Many experts recommend rebalancing your long-term portfolios like retirement accounts (IRAs, 401k, and other retirement plans) once a year. Traditionally, many people do it near the end of the year. If you haven’t rebalanced your portfolio since last year, it’s a good time to start thinking about doing it soon.

2011 Stock Market Update Q3

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The third quarter just closed on September 30th and it was not a pretty sight for short-term investors. The S&P 500 closed at 1,131.42 which is down 14 percent for the third-quarter. It started the year by opening on January 3rd (the 1st and 2nd were Saturday and Sunday, respectively) at 1,257.62.  That is a drop of a little over 10 percent year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 5.74 percent year to date. The stock market took a huge dive starting July 21st and has never pulled itself back up. For those of you looking for the culprit, let me help you out. The debt ceiling deal was reached at the end of July, which means the 21st was pretty much the height of the shenanigans. The markets have had no truly good news since to pull themselves back up by. Outlook for 2011 4th Quarter Stock Market Don’t expect the news cycle to save the stock market during the fourth quarter of 2011. In the 4th quarter, we’ll see increasingly competitive rhetoric building in the Republican Presidential primary, the product of the debt ceiling committee, which most are projecting will fail, and the start of …

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Crazy Week for Economy and Investors

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The beginning of August has brought nothing but turmoil to investors and the economy. Politicians played chicken with the debt ceiling despite the warnings of every single non-politician who knows even a little bit about economics. Although a deal was reached to raise the debt ceiling at the last minute, it was too late. Americans, and the rest of world, are rightly asking can Washington do anything now that it is so polarized into camps of us and them. That uncertainty comes at an inopportune time since there is already so much uncertainty surrounding the current state of the economy. Next came the downgrade of US debt by Standard and Poors. Make no mistake, this was a political, public relations ploy. The original S&P U.S. downgrade played up a very high percentage of debt to GDP, and even gave a number at which things would be "good enough" for the United States debt to not get a downgrade. However, when a math error that was big enough to move the number well into "good enough" territory was discovered, S&P downgraded U.S. bonds anyway, making many wonder what S&P bond ratings are even based on. The company may have damaged its …

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Apple Earnings Way Up for Quarter

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Most analysts had expected a big quarter for Apple, propelled by big holiday sales numbers. They were right; they just didn’t go high enough with their estimates. Apple reported revenue of $26.7 billion for its first-quarter which ended on December 25th. (The company uses a fiscal year for its earnings and reporting.) That’s earnings of $6 billion, or 6.43 cents per share, which is up 78 percent from a year ago. FactSet Research said analysts were predicting earnings of around $5.42 per share and revenue of $24.4 billion. Not coincidentally, all of this good news comes the day after the company announced that CEO Steve Jobs was taking a medical leave of absence. Apple stock traded ended the day down 2.25 percent at $340.65. Trading in the stock was halted after hours. When it resumed, shares were up in after-hours trading.

IBM Earnings Up

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IBM reported its 2010 third-quarter earnings today. The company reported earnings per share of $2.82 which is up 18 percent. The company did not announce any increase in the dividend paid per share, although that was not unexpected. The company continues to use share buybacks as the primary method to "return money to shareholders." The company’s third-quarter earnings announcement notes that the company, "returned $4.5 billion to shareholders through $0.8 billion in dividends and $3.7 billion of share repurchases," a ratio of approximately 1 to 46. However, the company did note that its free cash flow was down $300 million to $7.6 billion for the first nine months of the year. Coming up later today, Apple reports its earnings. The company does not pay dividends at all, preferring to build an enormous hoard of cash for some future purpose.