News

Payroll Tax Cut Extended

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Yea! Just got news that Congress decided not to kill off the fragile economic recovery in the U.S., well, not yet at least. Congress has passed legislation that extends the payroll tax cut through the entire year. The tax cut was a 2 percent reduction in the amount of Social Security tax paid by workers. The employer part of the social security tax (and therefore a significant part of the self-employment tax) was not cut. However, this tax cut put additional money in the pockets of households across America. Letting it expire and seeing what happens when people suddenly realize their paycheck is smaller than they are used to would have been a big problem. Virtually every respected economist in the world warned that failure to extend this particular tax cut would have a big impact on the U.S. economy, perhaps causing the tepid growth to teeter, or plunge all the way back into recession. I’ll be back later with more details once I have a chance to comb through the actually bill on its way to President Obama’s desk.

Market Up on Good Economic News

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Just a quick update today: The stock markets ticked up today on a little bit more good economic news. Following recent good labor market news and the Fed holding interest rates at zero, comes statistics showing last weeks jobless claims were at a 3 1/2 year low. Also, several large companies reported good results. Furthermore, two regional business surveys from the Federal Reserve showed better than expected growth for December. Finally, the general business conditions index for New York was higher again showing an increase in both new orders and hiring. That’s yet more good news for the job market. We’ll have new articles about end of year tax strategies, financial planning for those in extreme circumstances, and more in the coming days.

Fed Keeping Interest Rates Low

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In an announcement that comes as no surprise, in large part because it has been repeatedly telegraphed by the the Fed itself, the Federal Reserve Board on voted on Tuesday to leave interest rates at their current near zero rates. The Fed further reiterated its commitment to doing so for the near future, pledging to keep rates low through at least the middle of 2013. There are several interesting implications for investors and consumers in the Federal Reserve’s actions and statements today. First, as mortgage lending continues to languish and be a rather slow and dour corner of finance, homeowners should take solace in the fact that there is no rush. While there is no guarantee rates will stay exactly as low as they are, the Fed’s continued commitment to low interest rates means that neither new mortgage interest rates or adjustable mortgage rates are going up any time soon. Second, the Fed announced that it would continue to implements the so-called “twist” in which the Federal Reserve is moving its short-term bond holdings to longer-term bond holdings in an effort to bring down long-term interest rates. Longer term rates are traditionally less influenced by the Fed, which sets only the short-term …

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Jobless Claims Continue to Fall

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New unemployment claims fell to a nine month low in October. This trend has been struggling to get going for several months now. However, the possibility of an improving job market is a good sign for the U.S. economy. Update: Consumer sentiment also rose. That is a little bit more good news for the economy. Unfortunately, the news isn’t anywhere good enough to declare an economic recovery. The “good news” about the labor market we have been getting for the last several months means more about the job market bottoming out than it does about it getting better. Essentially, if you were drawing a graph of the U.S. labor market, these last couple of months of good economic news and indicators means you can stop drawing your line down. It does not mean, however, that you can start drawing that line back up. There are two major stumbling blocks now to an economic recovery. The first is the very unstable situation in Europe. What once looked like a problem for a couple of the continent’s weakest economies now looks like a full-fledged crisis for the entire European Union. Any collapse, or loss of faith, there and the U.S. economy will …

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Bank of America Cancels Debit Card Fee

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After facing the biggest customer backlash in recent memory over its decision to implement a $5 per month use fee for customers using a Bank of America debit card, the banking giant has reversed course and announced that it will not charge the $5 debit card fee starting next year. This news comes on the heels of news from several other major banks, like Chase and Wells Fargo, announcing that they would not charge a monthly debit card fee. More recently, several regional banks, including SunTrust and Regions, that had already been charging a monthly fee to use a debit card had to abandon the fee once it was popularized by the media in the wake of Bank of America’s decision to implement the fee. One can only wonder how their customers reacted prior to BoA implementing the fee. The lesson from all of this is that customers need to be very watchful of banking fees and charges. Do not just throw away those notices you get from your bank that are full of fine print, and carefully scrutinize your statements each month to ensure that no new fees are draining money from your accounts. As a long-term solution, consider …

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Economy Growing Slowly – Inflation Benign

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The U.S. economy continues to grow at a very slow pace according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. That isn’t good enough considering how deep the current recession is. At this rate, growth back to anything resembling an expansion would take a very long time. However, the good news is that the economy isn’t getting any worse for the time being. The Beige Book is a summary of the current state of the U.S economy across all of the Fed’s districts and for the most part, all reports are of "modest" or even "slight" growth. Inflation Not Happening It seems that the highest "street cred" a Fed banker can have is to be an inflation hawk. Since 2008, however, inflation hawks have actually been Chicken Little’s. With the economy growing very slowly and many Americans still out of work, it’s hard to see where inflationary pressure could come from. The just released Consumer Price Index (CPI) just confirmed that there is no real inflation anywhere to be found in the economy. The index rose just 0.1 percent. Prices excluding food and energy, both traditionally volatile pricing sectors that seem to move of their own accord rather than in step with …

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Is Groupon Public Yet?

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Has Google Already Beating Groupon? Not long ago, Google offered to buy Groupon for $6 billion. Soon thereafter, Groupon did another round of private equity financing that essentially paid off company founders and early investors such that they have already locked in sizable gains. That might be a very good thing since Groupon seems to be in trouble before it even goes public. Update: Groupon has updated its IPO filing documents again. Follow the link for the latest. Groupon’s IPO Filing Groupon has already had to adjust the documents it originally filed in order to do an initial public offering (IPO) of stock. It de-emphasized a widely mocked financial metric that essentially didn’t count certain expenses. That isn’t a huge thing by itself, although it does potentially show what Groupon thinks of the sophistication level (or lack thereof) of those who would buy Groupon’s IPO. Groupon’s management took the somewhat controversial step of trying to comment on all the negative publicity its IPO has been getting by sending out a company-wide email to employees saying exactly the kinds of things that you aren’t allowed to say during the SEC mandated “quiet period” before a public offering. Of course, they were …

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Can The Fed Really Be Treasonous?

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Recently, newly official Presidential candidate Rick Perry suggested that it would be "treasonous" for Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve to "print more money" in order to play politics. If you want the political dogfight over the comments, check your regular media outlet. However, the comments highlight a fundamental misunderstanding that most Americans have about the Federal Reserve Board and its power over the U.S. economy. Before we get into that, however, it seems that there is a glaring lack of logic in both Mr. Perry’s comments and the media reaction to them. If the Fed can fix the economy to such an extent that the recovery might alter the outcome of the election, whenever it chooses to do so, wouldn’t it be more treasonous to not be doing it right now, or say, six months ago? In other words, if just turning on the printing presses would make a meaningful improvement to the economy, shouldn’t (wouldn’t) they be doing it right now instead of letting the U.S. economy stall, its citizens suffer and allowing other countries to gain strength at America’s expense? The Fed’s Real Power The truth is that "printing money" or other fiscal stimulus can only accomplish …

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New Home Sales Rise

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Sales of new houses rose 7.3 percent, to 323,000 annual pace, the highest level in 2011. Of course, this comes on the heels of a record low just two months ago. New home sales statistics are quoted on an annual basis. In other words, if April’s new home sales numbers were what the new home sales numbers would be for every month of the year, how many new homes would be sold. So, the 323,000 new homes sold number means that there would be 323,000 new homes sold for the year. There are two important things about this latest economic data and how it will affect investors and the economy. First, the number is slightly higher than what economists were expecting. Any time a number surprises to the upside, that is good news, because it means that things were actually better than everyone thought. Second, while the number is higher, it is still very weak, meaning that IF the housing market is recovering, it is doing so very meekly. The big problem for new home sales is that there are so many existing homes for sale on the market today. Foreclosures and distressed owners continue to flood the housing market, …

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April Jobs Report Could Have Big Impact On Stocks

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The April jobs report is due out from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday. While economic statistics typically have a temporary effect on Wall Street before being shoved aside by whatever bit of news or data arrives a few days later, the April jobs number could be a bigger deal than usual. Recently, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Following the announcement, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held the first ever Fed press conference in which he laid out the Fed’s view of the U.S. economy. He suggested that the economic recovery is slowing. He didn’t use the word fragile, but plenty of people heard it anyway. He also suggested that inflation was tame and that any uptick was dwarfed by the greater potential for a slowdown in growth. Jobs Key to Economic Recovery Business spending has been measured, despite a tiny boom going on in Silicon Valley. Consumer spending has been whacked by not only by widespread job losses, but also by the housing market crash and subsequent collapse of the mortgage industry. Many homeowners have no equity left in their homes. Those that do are finding that terms for second mortgages are no better than the difficulties faced …

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