News

First Ever Fed Press Conference

by

Today marks the first time the Federal Reserve will hold a press conference to go along with it’s decision on whether to change interest rates. Most observers expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged (basically at zero percent), so the real action will be in the details that emerge from the press conference where questions about how the economy is doing, what the Fed is doing, and how long they think those things will last, will take center stage. In another change, the Federal Open Market Committee will also release the quarterly growth and inflation estimates that is uses to make its rate decisions today. Usually, the Fed releases those numbers weeks later. Today’s changes could make for a very volatile day in the markets because no one has ever done things this way before, so no one really knows how they are supposed to react. Will the markets over-react to something Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says? Will the markets react less than they would otherwise given how fresh all the data is? Or is this all just a bunch of sound and fury signifying nothing? We’ll all find out later today.

Banks to Buy Back Shares, Raise Dividends After Passing Fed’s “Stress Test”

by

Several major banks, including most of those deemed “too big to fail,” are set to raise their dividends and announce large stock repurchases after passing the latest Federal Reserve “stress test.” Banks and financial institutions that have repaid their government bailout TARP funds and passed the stress test have been given the go-ahead by the Federal Reserve to make new capital-based decisions such as increasing their dividend payouts or doing share buybacks. Shortly after the Fed’s announcement, the financial sector came alive with press releases about how the banking stocks would take advantage of the new allowances. J.P. Morgan announced both a higher dividend and a share buyback, for example. Banks Raising Dividends After Drastic Cuts During the height of the banking crisis, most banks and financial stocks were forced to cut their dividends to minimal levels, or even to zero. Eliminating their dividends took away one of the major reasons to invest in financial stocks, which historically have provided solid dividend income to investors. Even the the financial sector’s best preferred stocks were forced to slash their dividends. The quick moves by the big banks and Wall Street firms to reverse their dividend cuts offer a glimpse at how …

Read More

Trading Basics from the SEC

by

The SEC released an interesting item today.  It’s a two and a half page "bulletin" entitled Investor Bulletin: Trading Basics. Ironically, anyone who knows enough about the stock market to know about the investor education materials offered by the SEC probably already knows everything included in the PDF file. Be that as it may, if you want an official government agency explanation of terms like Market Orders, Limit Orders, Stop Orders, and Stop-Limit Orders, here is a nice, short, easy to read one for you. By the way, there are numerous investor education pieces available at the SEC website. Just search your topic and add site:sec.gov to the end of your search to limit results to those that are on the official U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission website.

PIMCO Total Return Bond Fund Cuts U.S. Government Holdings

by

Pimco Total Return is the biggest bond mutual fund in the world. It has a long-term track record that any bond fund would be jealous of. As a result, its fund manager, Bill Gross, has become something of an oracle of investing in bonds. Recently, the mutual fund reported its holdings. Like all mutual fund reporting, the data provides only a snapshot of one day of holdings within the fund. The Wall Street Journal reports that the allocation of assets in the Total Return fund in U.S. Government bonds and securities dropped again to just 12 percent of the overall portfolio, down from 22 percent at the end of 2010. Gross has become increasingly critical of the government’s intervention in the bond market and in particular of the Fed’s action to hold down interest rates by buying U.S. treasuries.  One can understand his frustration as these manipulations make it difficult for a money manager to do his job, regardless of their overall value (or lack thereof) to economic stability and growth. The real irony is that with U.S. treasury yields depressed, and Gross having sold out almost anything he can at the Fed’s inflated pricing, there are few places to …

Read More

Groupon IPO Better Hurry UP

by

Not long ago, news that Groupon had spurned Google’s $6 billion takeover bid was released and I couldn’t help but thinking that maybe Groupon had succumbed to pop-star diva mentality, where everyone except you and the flatterers you surround yourself with know that your future at the top is shaky at best. Later reports suggested that Groupon was worried that the deal might eventually be blocked by regulators and that the company would be left holding the bag after spending over a year in waiting mode. That makes more sense, but I still thought the clock was ticking. After that, reports suggested that Groupon raised more money to buy out early investors who wanted to cash out. Looks like I’m not the only one worried about the future. The main issue with Groupon is that the barrier to entry, or the so-called economic moat, around its business model is virtually non-existent. Sure, other small VC-funded startups might have trouble taking on the deal of the day website, but a well funded competitor would have no problem replicating what the company does quickly. Yesterday slammed home just how urgent the Groupon IPO is. Living Social, one of the Groupon competitors that …

Read More

Apple Earnings Way Up for Quarter

by

Most analysts had expected a big quarter for Apple, propelled by big holiday sales numbers. They were right; they just didn’t go high enough with their estimates. Apple reported revenue of $26.7 billion for its first-quarter which ended on December 25th. (The company uses a fiscal year for its earnings and reporting.) That’s earnings of $6 billion, or 6.43 cents per share, which is up 78 percent from a year ago. FactSet Research said analysts were predicting earnings of around $5.42 per share and revenue of $24.4 billion. Not coincidentally, all of this good news comes the day after the company announced that CEO Steve Jobs was taking a medical leave of absence. Apple stock traded ended the day down 2.25 percent at $340.65. Trading in the stock was halted after hours. When it resumed, shares were up in after-hours trading.

IBM Earnings Up

by

IBM reported its 2010 third-quarter earnings today. The company reported earnings per share of $2.82 which is up 18 percent. The company did not announce any increase in the dividend paid per share, although that was not unexpected. The company continues to use share buybacks as the primary method to "return money to shareholders." The company’s third-quarter earnings announcement notes that the company, "returned $4.5 billion to shareholders through $0.8 billion in dividends and $3.7 billion of share repurchases," a ratio of approximately 1 to 46. However, the company did note that its free cash flow was down $300 million to $7.6 billion for the first nine months of the year. Coming up later today, Apple reports its earnings. The company does not pay dividends at all, preferring to build an enormous hoard of cash for some future purpose.

Unemployment Report Bad News for 2011 Economy Recovery

by

The November jobs report came in worse than predicted. Recent reports suggesting that consumers were spending more money and that first-time unemployment claims were dropping suggested that the Great Recession might be coming to an end in 2010. Alas, the jobs report shatters that idea for the short-term. A recovery without new jobs isn’t worth the paper it’s statistics are printed on. Ongoing economic recovery requires that not just the people who are currently employed go back to spending and non-fear based economic decisions, but also that more people join their ranks. Unfortunately, that can’t happen if people are not returning to being employed. Smart money decisions will swing from taking advantage of low prices and low interest rates to saving cash. While increasing savings is good on a personal level, it isn’t necessarily good for the economy overall. The possibility that jobless benefits will begin to run out for millions of Americans only adds an additional weight to the overall economy. Put it together with States losing billions of dollars worth of Federal money from economic stimulus programs ending in 2011, and you have a lot of negatives pulling on the first quarter of 2011. The Federal Reserve’s recent …

Read More

2011 Outlook for Banks and Mortgage Companies

by

Throughout the financial crisis and subsequent bailout of the U.S. banking system, the issue has been one of Wall Street versus Main Street. That is, the idea that greedy bankers, investment bankers, and Wall Street traders duped unsophisticated Americans into mortgages that they could not afford and then left them hanging when things went bad. Whether that versions of events is true or not is open to debate. However, what has been missing so far from the banking crisis scenario is that numerous investors, very sophisticated, institutional investors, were also "duped" by Wall Street titans and those too-big to fail banks. Those investors were buying AAA-rated bonds from reputable investment firms and banks. They were not buying risky, high-yield bond investments, or so they thought. An article over at MSNBC underlines those circumstances and suggests that the next phase of the mortgage crisis debacle may just now be getting underway, thanks in part to the complexities and speed of the U.S. legal system. Banks Sued Over Mortgages Used For Bonds Giants of the bond market’s investing world such as PIMCO Investment Management, and Blackrock Financial Management, two of the biggest fixed-income mutual fund managers in the world, as well as …

Read More

What Does the Election Mean for the Economy?

by

Republicans Win House, Democrats Keep Senate – Gridlock? Traditionally, Wall Street and big business have favored gridlock in Washington D.C. The idea is that when Republicans and Democrats are busy fighting each other, they can’t be changing the laws and regulations that businesses already know. Theoretically, any currently successful business already knows how to earn money and make a profit under the current laws, but that may not be the case under new legislation that gets passed. The devil you know, is better than the one you don’t — so to speak. But, is political gridlock good for American business this time? Is partisan fighting a good thing or a bad thing for the U.S. economy right now? Is Gridlock Good for The Economy? With the 2010 U.S. economy in a fragile state, and major changes in the form of ending stimulus funds coming in 2011, the difficult question is whether the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives a bad thing for the economy, or is it good for the economy that Democrats have lost the House. The major concern to look for in 2011 is the end of stimulus spending and other U.S. Government spending to bolster the …

Read More