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Fed Says 0% Interest For Years

September 16, 2020 by Finance Gourmet

According to news reports, the Federal Reserve will signal that its interest rate plan will remain unchanged through the end of 2023. These kinds of “leaks” are typically from Fed staffers trying to lessen any shock ahead of the actual Fed meeting. What 0% Interest For Three Years Means For starters, this is both a bold, and a baloney statement. It’s bold in that stating there will be no interest rate hikes for three years, the Fed is making a prediction about the U.S. economy and where it will be going and committing to 0%. It’s baloney, because if things go well coming out of the whole Corona virus thing and the U.S. economy roars ahead in 2021, or 2022, the Fed will just come out with a new statement saying that economic data dictate a new policy direction. So, what is the point of the Fed’s statement? Investors know how to make money. It isn’t about predicting the future, it’s about determining what the risk is and pricing it accordingly against the possible return. This is a lot easier than it sounds. It requires looking at an impossible number of variables, and weighing each one. In the end, the …

Negative Interest Rates and The Fed

June 15, 2020 by Finance Gourmet

Like any type of news, sensational, click-bait news draws in a lot of clicks for financial websites. Unfortunately, this can lead to a lot of confusion, especially for folks who only read the headlines. I can often tell when this happens because my questions fill up with vaguely understood concepts and concerns about unlikely situations and issues. This is happening more and more with the topic of negative interest rates. Negative Interest Rates What are negative interest rates? Let’s start with what are negative rates. The concept is simple on its face. Interest rates are normally, “positive.” The borrower pays a (positive) interest rate on a loan to the lender. Or, in the case of a savings account, the bank pays a (positive) interest rate to the account holder. In a world of negative interest rates, this would theoretically reverse. The lender would pay the borrower to take out a loan, and the account holder would pay the bank to keep their money. If this sounds bizarre, you are right, and it wouldn’t really happen. — We’ll get to that in a moment. More abstractly, The Federal Reserve Bank pays banks a small amount of interest to hold deposited funds …

Restarting The Economy

May 26, 2020 by Finance Gourmet

How do you restart the economy? The reality is that no one really knows. The mostly shutdown of most of the economy for a couple of months is unprecedented. Sure, some parts have shutdown for various reasons (usually natural disasters), but the whole U.S. basically turning off businesses at the same time has never really happened. What Is “The Economy?” Part of the trick to understanding reopening the economy is knowing what we are talking about. In a real way, the economy itself never shut down. Money still changed hands, bills were still paid — or unpaid — stocks still traded, shoppers still bought things online, and certain businesses, like grocery stores, never shut down at all. So, what are we talking about? Most states restricted various in-person businesses. The cliche is hairdressers and barbers. However, there were a lot of other, much bigger, sections of the economy that were shut down. Shopping malls, gyms, and perhaps most importantly, restaurants. Are Restaurants The Economy? Although we take them for granted, restaurants make up an enormous part of the economy, as well as the tax base for cities and states. Unlike a hair salon that employs a few people, restaurants can …

How To Get Your Coronavirus Money

April 6, 2020March 30, 2020 by Finance Gourmet

The coronavirus has upended the U.S. economy and sent millions of Americans into unemployment. While it isn’t enough to offset everything, Congress did pass some legislation providing a cash infusion to Americans as a way to both help people through a tricky time, as well as try and prop up the economy. Of course, getting funds out to all Americans isn’t an easy task. Really, the only way to handle such a thing is to tap into the one institution almost every American must interact with, the IRS. How To Get My $1200 Payment As is always the case when you try and get to “everyone” someone gets missed, and this big government payout is no exception. If you have the “average” interactions with the IRS your payment is on the way and you don’t have to do anything. If you have a less common situation, then things can get trickier. Check out my Acorns review Basically, if you filed income taxes in 2018, or if you’ve already filed for 2019, the IRS will use the same information you provided for any refund, or payment you had. If you didn’t file taxes, either because your income was too low, or …

The Big Market Plunge

February 25, 2020 by Finance Gourmet

The stock market has been on increasingly shaky ground over the past several months as valuations raised quickly on dubious fundamentals. When this happens, market get skittish and start looking for any reason to make at least a small correction. That reason popped up this month in the form of the coronavirus. The coronavirus isn’t actually new. Several strains are already very well known both in the U.S. and abroad, but the latest strain seems to spread more quickly and easily than other strains. As fear of an epidemic (justified or not) rise, investors get nervous and start to look for safer investments. See my review of Acorns. While that may not mean wholesale selling out of portfolios it’s easy to see how investors might prune back international investments, and even investments in the United States that depend are harder hit countries like China. What Investors Should Do About the Coronavirus? As always, while any market plunge is scary, a well-crafted, regularly refinanced portfolio is best way to invest for the long-term. One day, the coronavirus will be old news, just like Ebola, and bird flu, and the other scary viruses that have made headlines in the past. When that …

2020 Income Taxes

January 14, 2020 by Finance Gourmet

We are getting ready to start publishing tax season articles here on Finance Gourmet. Whether you need tax deduction advice, freelancer tax advice, or small business tax advice we’ll try and cover you, along with plenty of how-to file your taxes correctly. In the meantime, be sure you save all of those tax forms you get in the mail. If you have the equipment, scan them, and save them in a folder for tax documents as soon as you get them so nothing gets lost. There’s nothing more frustrating than having to track down a missing W2, or missing 1099 form when you know you already received one in the mail. Although most post offices no longer carry hard copy tax forms, some post offices do. You can also download tax forms directly from the IRS at irs.gov.

The Not Quite Goldilocks Economy

December 18, 2019 by Finance Gourmet

Everybody loves the idea of the Goldilocks Economy. Not too hot. Not too cold. Just right. The Fed is leaving interest rates unchanged, and telegraphing that is currently isn’t planning on making any changes next year either. Stock market pundits have given up on calling the impeding doom of a stock market crash (at least for this month). Job reports show job growth, but not too fast of job growth. And while wage are growing, they are doing so slowly. Not Goldilocks However, you won’t see a lot of articles on a Goldilocks Economy happening. While things are definitely not too hot and not too cold, there is a connotation with Goldilocks that things are inherently good. This economy seems more like the negative version of a Goldilocks situation. As in things aren’t too bad, as opposed to things are too good. In a way, this is better for investors and the economy in general. Too much optimism can turn a mild-mannered, almost Goldilocks economy into a runaway bubble and no one wants that. The next year will be very interesting. Once the holidays are past and the country stops paying attention to impeachment in Washington, the reality of just …

Customer Spending Plus No Inflation is Best

August 30, 2019 by Finance Gourmet

Interesting story today over on Market Watch. In the decade since the U.S. basically gave up on manufacturing to do it cheaper overseas while building a service economy at home, the only real driver of economic growth is customer spending. As long as customers are buying, American companies can keep importing goods from China and making a profit. Meanwhile, the service economy runs along in the background to give Americans the money to spend. Ironically, the only thing that moves slower than trying to adjust the economy with interest rates is trying to adjust the thinking of economists who insist on pretending that America has basically the same economic structure it did two or three decades ago. This disconnect is the root cause of much of America’s economic stress. Today’s super Goldilocks article notes that American consumer spending increased in July, with (still) no increase in inflation. In the reality of today’s U.S. economy this is literal perfection. Business can continue to grow, consumers can continue to spend, and companies can hire, all with no currency blow back issues. But, old school economists and the money shufflers on Wall Street can’t see this. All they remember are no longer accurate …

Stock Market Is a Leading Indicator

September 11, 2020August 23, 2019 by Finance Gourmet

Remember, the stock market is a leading indicator. What Is a Leading Indicator? This should probably get its own post, along with what is a lagging indicator, but that isn’t the point of this article, so let’s hit the highlights. At the most basic level there are leading indicators and lagging indicators. A leading indicator is a measurement of what is to come. A lagging indicator is a measurement of what has already happened. At a metaphorical level, the display on your car that says you have 80% of the life of your oil left is a leading indicator. It is measuring the future. Note that it does NOT predict the future. It’s a best guess effort based on available data. Contrast that with a lagging indicator, which measures something in the past. Metaphorically, this might be the sticker on the windshield that says the mileage of the last oil change, or your maintenance log. In the world of economics, most lagging indicators are big data compiled by the government. You may have noticed that the June Labor Report comes out in July. That’s because you have to wait until the end of June for all the data to even …

Stocks! China! Trade Deal!

August 13, 2019 by Finance Gourmet

The Trump presidency has been nothing if unpredictable. The President seems to wake up with new tweets on his mind every day, and the markets love overreacting to every one. The result is a stunning whip shaw effect of large market moves up and down, often during the same day. This morning, U.S. Trade representatives said that the new tariffs Trump announced in a tweet on August 1 would be delayed. Some tariffs will be delayed until September 1 and others until December. Does that mean that progress is being made on a trade deal? Only the President knows, although he doesn’t really know either. Depending on how talk show hosts talk over the next few weeks, and what he advisors say, he may or may not think he is getting a good deal. Or getting credit for a good deal. Or maybe just get bored. Long-Term Diversified Portfolio Every financial planner eventually gets tired of beating this drum, but the answer is always the same. A long-term, well-balanced, risk adjusted, annually rebalanced portfolio is the solution to the dramatic, unpredictable moves of the market. Sooner or later, this market will roll over. Although, the tons of analysts “predicting” it …