- - Page 2 of 12 The Finance Gourmet

Blaming the Fed

January 27, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Selective amnesia and analysts dying to be “right” is contributing to a flood of inaccurate articles seeking to blame the Fed. I saw this in my Twitter feed this morning and I just couldn’t let it go by. It’s filled with the kind of half-truths and misinformation that builds an analyst’s career, unfortunately, but that doesn’t make it true. Here we go. According to this tweet, The Fed spent 12 years creating an “everything bubble,” a term so bizarre that it requires quotes. Oh, and the Fed didn’t spend 12 years creating this so-called everything bubble. Oh, and before we start pointing fingers, until THIS YEAR neither this analyst, nor almost any other was asking for the Fed to tighten monetary policy because the economy was teetering on a cliff and every bit of the stimulus was required to prevent the Great Recession II, or worse. Yep. For exactly, ONE MONTH, inflation has been a bit crazy. Too bad the graph they posted as “evidence” is so far zoomed out that you can’t see what really happened. Maybe they couldn’t find one that showed more recent events. Oh, wait! Here’s one. The crazy, reckless Fed that has been pumping up …

Market Monday 1-24-2022

January 24, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Hey, Boys and Girls, here comes an interesting week for investors. The following article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. As always, the best investment strategy for long-term investing is building a well-diversified portfolio based upon your time frame and risk tolerance and then leaving it alone except for annual or semi-annual rebalancing. But… Short-Term Investing January 2022 The week of January 24, 2022 looks fun. And by fun, I mean interesting. The Fed meets on Wednesday. Everyone expects it to raise interest rates to help tame inflation, while also reducing its bond buying to do the same thing. If that weren’t enough, a bunch of big companies are set to report their earnings this week including Apple, Microsoft, and McDonalds. At least we don’t have to worry about options expiring, that was last week. As I write this, the S&P 500 hit the 10% down mark necessary to call the move from January 3 to now a correction. Remember a correction is a 10% reduction, although most people will require the market to close beneath that level to call it a recession. A 20% reduction …

Fed Raising Rates 2022 Inflation and Economy

January 11, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

At all times the Federal Reserve’s Open Market committee has a dual task. One task is to guard against inflation. The other task is to not make the economy implode. In most cases, this isn’t as hard as it sounds as long as you have strong Federal Reserve bankers who don’t cave to Wall Street’s pressure (or dance like monkeys to in the first place.) For 2022, The Fed has one of the tricky times. This is what Wall Street pressure looks like: December payroll data showed a far fewer than Wall Street said it would be addition of 199,000 to payrolls, but wages did increase 4.7% year over year. There is a very big catch here. Remember that the economy got messed up rather good with Covid and it really isn’t done with Covid, so all of these numbers have to be taken against the fact that last year was not good and this year isn’t so much a raging economy as it is putting the pieces that fell off the board back up on it. Don’t forget to read our Zelle review. That being said, inflation is up, even compared to pre-Covid and you don’t want to fall …

Unemployment Rises Less Than Expected

December 8, 2021December 2, 2021 by Finance Gourmet

Ah, the world of finance, where the rules are made up, and the points don’t matter. OK, I stole that from Phineas and Ferb, but sometimes it fits better than it does even for a fake game show. Today, unemployment numbers were released in which the number of Americans filing for unemployment increased. That means more Americans are jobless than before, despite the so-called worker shortage and the Great Resignation. Don’t forget, you don’t get to file for unemployment when you quit, so these are still Americans who were fired, downsized, let go, or their employer closed. More unemployed Americans is bad, in general, but… Economists were predicting (modeling, similar to what meteorologists do) that there would be even more Americans filing for unemployment, so the fact that more Americans are unemployed, but not as bad as we thought, is good news. Kind of. Check out my review of the new fintech investing apps. The reality is that numerous traders and investors made their trades expecting higher unemployment numbers would push down the price of securities and investments. Since they were wrong, the price of those investments are rebounding. This is “good news” in the world of finance, and a …

Will Fed Raise Rates Sooner Than Expected?

October 6, 2021 by Finance Gourmet

There are several economists out there predicting that rising inflation will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than project. In fact, half of the Fed Board was talking about a rate increase in 2022 instead of the previously telegraphed 2024. But, does that mean The Fed will raise rates sooner than previously stated? Inflation Isn’t Coming All of this is predicated on inflation rising. The concern right now is that prices have been rising this year. This is all true, but this is October and that means the holiday shopping season is upon us, and chances are it won’t look very good come January. We’ve already seen the job reports showing that job growth is slowing despite a supposed worker shortage. Unemployed people spend a lot less at Christmas. But, there is more than that. Employed people who know unemployed people spend less as well due to a fear that they could soon be unemployed as well. Add to that reports that there are going to be supply chain problems, and that container ships have to wait excessive times to get their cargo unloaded by dock workers on the west coast and you end up with a …

Extra Unemployment Ends

September 10, 2021 by Finance Gourmet

Here in Colorado several restaurateurs wrote a letter to Governor Jared Polis earlier this summer asking him to join the other states that ended the extra unemployment benefits enacted in response to the global Covid-19 panic. Their theory was that the higher unemployment checks were keeping restaurant workers on the sidelines making them unable to appropriately staff their restaurants. Extra $300 Unemployment Payment Ends Until earlier this month, many recipients of unemployment were getting an extra $300 per week. This is a substantial amount considering typical unemployment benefits are around $400 per week under normal circumstances. Another way to look at is that the $300 per week represents $7.50 per hour when compared to a full-time 40-hour workweek. The restaurant owners concluded that the ability to earn a total payment of approximately $700 per week, or $17.50 per hour as a 40-hour workweek. With numbers like that, it’s no wonder that hard working restaurant jobs paying near minimum wage of $12, or even $13 or $14 per hour would not entice workers to come back. Supporters of the extended benefits looked at the same data and concluded that it is the restaurateur’s own fault for paying such low wages. Who …

Federal Reserve Meeting Notes Meaning

August 18, 2021 by Finance Gourmet

The Federal Reserve meets once a quarter. After that meeting, they announce what, if any changes, they have made to the Fed’s interest rate policy. At the last meeting, there were no changes to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate targets. The Federal Reserve meeting notes refine the details of the main Fed announcement. Fed’s Meeting Notes Later, after they have been reviewed and made viewable for the public, the Fed releases the notes from it’s meeting. Financial analysts and market pundits then parse these notes for clues to the Fed’s thinking. This time, everyone is looking toward how the notes take about bond-buying tapering. What does this mean? The short version is that when the economy went so bad back during the Great Recession following the real estate market crash, the Fed had to do more than just cut interest rates to stabilize the economy. In my opinion, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernake saved the US economy from a hard recession by flooding the market with liquidity and saying that he would keep doing it for as long as it takes. Check out my Acorns review is Acorns Legit? Basically, as long as it takes, has never really come. One …

My Second Stimulus Check

March 9, 2021 by Finance Gourmet

Taxpayers may be getting notifications about their second stimulus check deposit from the government. With all of the news talk about the Democrat’s latest stimulus bill, it can be easy to forget that a second stimulus check was authorized at the end of last year (2020), and that these second stimulus checks have nothing to do with the newest $1,400 stimulus checks that Democrats are currently passing in March 2021. How Many Stimulus Checks Are There? I just got my notification from the IRS about Your Second Economic Impact Payment, aka EIP2. It says it was issued by direct deposit back in January. So, why am I getting this letter now? The IRS loves records, you should keep this letter from the IRS with the rest of your tax records. (I recommend scanning your receipts and other records such as this letter.) Time flies, especially during Covid, but at the end of last year, the U.S. government authorized one-time payments of $600 per taxpayer for taxpayers with an adjusted gross income below $75,000 if filing as individual, and $150,000 for married filing jointly. Those with higher incomes will see their payments reduced or eliminated. This represents the second stimulus payment. …

New Home Sales and Post Covid Life

February 24, 2021 by Finance Gourmet

Here is a quick bit of news to inform how you look at investing and personal finance moving into a post-Covid world. New Home Sales Rise New home sales were up 19% annually. That is much more than predicted by analysts. There are few trends pushing the higher home sales and those same trends are worth noting across your investing. Covid knocked down the home buying market to basically zero, as showings were banned. Covid also made people more conservative and protective of their finances. Staying put seemed easier and less risky than trying to move. But… Now, as things move toward a post Covid mindset, buyers are looking for new homes. However, there is a very low supply of existing homes on the market, so one of the easy ways to buy a house is to buy new. That means that what existing homes do go on the market are selling for asking price or higher, and selling quickly because of all the demand. This is good news because that experience will lead others out of their cocoon to sell. This news obviously helps home builders, although that still remains a very risky investment. See Is Zelle Safe on …

Stocks Rise on Inauguration Day

January 20, 2021 by Finance Gourmet

Stocks are racing higher here on Inauguration Day. The question, as always, for us non-day traders is whether or not the day’s news and the stock market’s reaction to it is worthy of our time and attention. Why Are Is The Stock Market Higher on Inauguration Day Does the stock market just love Joe Biden? Not really. However, the stock market does love two things about today. One, is that there wasn’t any sort of violence or disturbance that would signal danger to the forthcoming economy. The second, is that with control of all three branches, Democrats are likely to enact at least some form of additional stimulus, which will help prop up the economy, and more importantly, stave off the reckoning of a possible recession. Washington Can Finally Help the Fed Prop Up The Economy As the Federal Reserve Chairman has been saying to anyone that will listen, the economy is actually on very weak footing right now. Sure, the stock market has been rising. However, the market’s optimism has largely been fueled by the idea that an America on its knees from the unchecked spread of Covid-19 has nowhere to go but up. Behind the scenes, however, is …