economy

Stock Market Reality Check and When To Panic

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10 years invested in SP500

I’ve written a few articles recently about the start of the year stock market freak out and about not panicking when the stock market makes sudden moves. In response I’ve heard from people about if there ever is a time to panic, and if there isn’t, if there is ever a right time to sell. The problem is that there is some knowledge missing from these questions. So, here is a reality check on the current stock market situation, and some advice on when to panic and when to sell your stocks. Long-Term Diversified Portfolio Let’s start from the beginning. There are a lot of different kinds of investing. When people forget this fact, it often causes them to make incorrect decisions. Remember, every decision you make should be consistent with your investing strategy and financial plan. So, for those of you investing for the long-term, particularly for retirement, with a decade or more to go, your reactions should be very different from someone who is investing for other reasons, or for a shorter time frame. As a long-term retirement investor, your strategy should be to construct a well diversified portfolio that matches your return needs with your risk tolerance. …

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What Is Middle Class?

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middle class or not

Who is middle class in America, and why does it matter? Middle Class Politics One favorite political maneuver is to come out in favor of the middle class. There are a lot of reasons for this. First, and foremost is that numerous studies have shown that no matter how much money they actually make, most Americans think that they are middle class. Thus, when a politician says they care about the middle class, most people make the assumption that the politician is talking about them. On a secondary level, the value in favoring the middle class, is that there is a deeply American assumption that the middle class is where you will find the normal, hard-working American people. Those who are wealthy, can be assumed to be either exceptionally lucky, exceptionally hard working, or exceptionally smart, depending on who you ask. Realistically, it is all three. One need only look at the number of seemingly less than intelligent, or motivated, celebutaunt children who just luckily have wealthy parents, compared to the rags to riches stories of various immigrants or sons and daughters who were born into poverty. Whereas, the poor are the exceptionally unlucky, unhard working, or unintelligent. The fact that …

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Market Volatility Continues as Beginning of 2016

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Market Volatility Continues as Beginning of 2016 1

I’ve written a few articles now about the volatility in the U.S. stock market, especially as it pertains to reacting to China’s stock market (and the time before that too). A few years ago, the trouble was Greece, if you can remember that far back. Sometimes, it seems like last month is ancient history to market watchers. I’ve also written about how overreacting to bad news isn’t wise, but, what is really going on with the stock market, and what should real investors think? America vs The World Stock Market First, it is important to notice the difference between the American stock market reacting to news about the U.S. and the American economy, and reacting to the news and stock markets of other economies. While world economies are more intertwined than ever, the circumstances in China are not the same as they are here. While the Chinese economy is stuck in a tricky place thanks to ongoing government intervention, and rising debt loads, the U.S. economy actually could probably use a bit of government help. The markets don’t like uncertainty, though, and a lot of what you are seeing in the stock market today, and other days, is nothing more than …

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Fed Raises Interest Rates – Now What?

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interest rates federal reserve

This post was published in 2015. The Federal Reserve Raised interest rates today! It’s HISTORIC! It’s the FIRST ONE IN NEARLY A DECADE! WHAT HAPPENS NOW!?!?!  AGGGGHHHHH!!!! No Real Changes From Interest Rate Increases As we’ve discussed a bit before, there really isn’t as much big news in today’s announcement as you might think. First of all, this has been the most expected interest rate hike in history, so there is no one out there making rash decisions. In fact, there might have been more trouble if the Fed had not raised interest rates since that would have actually been surprising. In other words, the stock market, the bond market, and every market in between was already planning for, and pricing in today’s interest rate increase. This is why the stock market basically kept going the way it was already going before the meeting’s results were announced. Increases In Consumer Loans? Theoretically, an increase in the target interest rate from the Feds should raise the cost of consumer borrowing as well. However, a lot of credit products these days have minimum interest rates, and many products are still going to be at that minimum rate. For example, a credit card …

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Tech Earnings, The Economy and Stocks

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Well, this is an interesting week for investing and stocks. Many technology companies are releasing earnings this week. These companies are not more, nor less, important than other companies, but many of them have become both household names, and some of the most commonly owned household stocks. That makes the earnings more interesting to a lot of Main Street investors. Due up for earnings reports today was Twitter, which recently welcomed back former CEO Jack Dorsey, who is also still the CEO of his startup company, Square, presumably at least until he can finish taking it public. (Dorsey can then claim victory and a “big exit” for Square, which is a bigger thing than you might think in Silicon Valley.) Twitter stock is down 10 percent as I write this because things are just as bad as everyone thought. Google, now Alphabet, reported good earnings and its share prices have been climbing, same with Amazon. Microsoft is up, Yahoo is down. And so on. The big news today, was Apple stock which beat estimates thanks to growth in China, among other things. That will be business as usual for the markets, which is good news. There could have been a …

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Fed Does Not Raise Rates Market Confused

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So, this is interesting. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at its September (2015) meeting. This is not surprising, per se. There were numerous international banks and organizations, plus tons of U.S. economists who worried that an increase would be too soon for a fragile economy. Here is where it gets weird. The stock market LOVES to plunge in reaction to a rate increase. Sure, it only lasts a day or two, but there’s nothing quite as fulfilling to a stock market index as dropping 200 or 300 points whenever the Fed raises interest rates. The catch is that Wall Street actually secretly loves interest rate hikes. A Federal Reserve increasing interest rates is the equivalent of a stern father taking away our credit card for our own good. The market throws a temper tantrum, of course, but it’s better for everyone in the long term. If the Fed raises interest rates, then there won’t be an inflation boogeyman. Based on all the pundits and analysts out there, it sure seems like the stock market was expecting a rate increase and all ready to throw its fit and wring its hand, probably just until the weekend, but still. …

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Stock Market Down On Jobs

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 300 points right now because of a good jobs report. As the main character in one of my daughter’s shows says, “What the huh?” Jobs Good, Rates Rise? No one thing seems to move the stock market more regularly than the jobs report. As always, this new report is actually about last month. After all, it takes some time to collect and calculate the data. What makes this particular jobs report so important is its timing. The Federal Reserve Board is scheduled to meet in September. The Fed has expressed a willingness, if not a desire, to raise interest rates this year if the economy is doing well enough. Everything looked pretty good for a rate increase in September, but then the whole China market blowup thing happened and with it, the U.S. stock market took a hit, and the idea of a rate hike got a little more iffy. But, with a good jobs report, the rate hike is back on the table… maybe. You see, the jobs report was good, but not good enough to make this a no brainer. Jobs were created, but well below the 200,000 that would be …

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States Still Not Recovered Jobs Lost In Recession

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A researcher published some data showing how the individual states are doing recovering jobs lost during the recession. The highlight is that 15 states have not recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession. The interesting part is what that might mean. (Note: this is from total nonfarm employment and counts both part-time and full-time jobs) The 15 states that still haven’t recovered all the jobs lost during the recession are: Alabama Arizona Connecticut Illinois Maine Mississippi Missouri Nevada New Jersey New Mexico Ohio Rhode Island West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming If your life is all about politics, I’m sure you’re rushing to count Democrats and Republicans as a way to “prove” that your side is the best side. Sorry, but that shows little understanding of economics. But, if you insist, there are more Republican governors than Democrat governors on the list. Of course, to be fair, a lot of those states are the so-called purple ones. A more realistic analysis shows some obvious ones. Nevada and Arizona were the poster children of over-heated housing markets that collapsed, so it’s natural, they are one the list. On the other hand, Florida was hit pretty hard by the housing bubble but is not …

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Does The Deficit Really Matter?

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The U.S. national deficit marked up some interesting news coverage these last few months. First up, was news at the total national debt hit $18 trillion earlier this year. Then, seemingly different news when a May report showed that the U.S. ran its largest budget surplus in seven years during April. What does all of this deficit stuff mean, and does the national debt really matter? (The government often runs a surplus in April; it’s when the majority of U.S. taxes are collected, so it is a larger than normal inflow of funds.) The Deficit vs The National Debt It is important to understand some terminology. First, the national debt, is the total amount owed by the United States government. Contrary to popular belief this debt is not owed “to China” or to any other government. Rather, the debt exists in the form of Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds (including those U.S. Savings Bonds your grandmother gave you). These all trade as securities on the open market. The Chinese government is free to buy them if it wants, and so are you, and anyone else. Owning these securities entitles you to an interest payment and the repayment of principal on a predetermined schedule. Neither …

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Higher Minimum Wage Help or Hurt?

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Now, Los Angeles becomes the biggest city to pass a $15 per hour minimum wage law. Note the very big difference between having a law, and having an actual $15 minimum wage, which it does not, and will not until 2020. Almost exactly one year ago, I wrote about how raising the minimum wage doesn’t really end up hurting businesses or the economy, in large part because minimum wage jobs are already, well… minimum. The idea is that minimum wage jobs pay the minimum, are done by the minimum number of people, and cannot be outsourced to somewhere where you could pay less than the minimum. The only possible downside, then, is a mass closing of minimum wage businesses. This was because Seattle had just become the biggest city to have a $15 minimum wage law. Various publications and “news” organizations are already trying to claim to see whatever effect their side predicted is happening. The irony is that anyone saying they know, or can already see what the effects of a higher minimum wage are, is probably lying, or misconstruing their data. What Happens With $15 Minimum Wage Here comes hard fact number 1. There is no $15 minimum wage yet. …

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