Stock Analysis

Stock Market Reality Check and When To Panic

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10 years invested in SP500

I’ve written a few articles recently about the start of the year stock market freak out and about not panicking when the stock market makes sudden moves. In response I’ve heard from people about if there ever is a time to panic, and if there isn’t, if there is ever a right time to sell. The problem is that there is some knowledge missing from these questions. So, here is a reality check on the current stock market situation, and some advice on when to panic and when to sell your stocks. Long-Term Diversified Portfolio Let’s start from the beginning. There are a lot of different kinds of investing. When people forget this fact, it often causes them to make incorrect decisions. Remember, every decision you make should be consistent with your investing strategy and financial plan. So, for those of you investing for the long-term, particularly for retirement, with a decade or more to go, your reactions should be very different from someone who is investing for other reasons, or for a shorter time frame. As a long-term retirement investor, your strategy should be to construct a well diversified portfolio that matches your return needs with your risk tolerance. …

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Square IPO Not Worth $6 Billion?

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square ipo logo

Sometimes, the “I told you so,” moments just take too long to happen. They do, eventually, but by then, either people don’t remember, or they aren’t around any longer. I still remember people refusing to sell the Qwest stock in their 401k in order to diversify because it was, “the best investment I have,” and then seeing the stomach churning drop that must have wiped out 50 percent or more of their retirement money. Then, of course, were all the people sitting smugly across from me saying that “real estate never really goes down,” as they talked about pooling money with family to buy a house in Phoenix. Square Not Worth $6 Billion in IPO? For years, people have been saying that the venture capital market and the various valuations given to technology companies before they go public are maybe a bit unrealistic. Of course, something always seems to come along and save the two Simpson children, as they say. (Well… as I say, anyway.) Tumblr was reportedly running out of money fast, but Yahoo swooped in and paid them a billion dollars anyway. Instagram got a billion from Facebook. And, so on. Today, maybe, indicates the first I told …

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Investor Types

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Often, when I write about stock market news, or other economic events, I conclude by reminding long-term investors that there is no need to overreact (or really react at all) to the current short-term events. It was brought to my attention that not everyone is a long-term investor. That’s not true, but what is true is that not everyone is solely a long-term investor. And, that being the case, perhaps it is worth me addressing other investing types and issues, here on Finance Gourmet. That sounds fair, but in order to do so, I think I need to start with the different types of investors. Different Types of Investors Long-Term Investors The most common type of investor is the long-term investor. Everyone with a 401k or an IRA falls into this category. The goal of this investor should be to construct a well diversified portfolio and then review and rebalance it regularly. The strength of this type of investor is that over time, this is a sound approach that has never failed. The weakness of this type of investor is forgetting the strength and reacting inappropriately to short-term events. This category could be broken into two sub-types, those who are only investing …

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China and the Stock Market

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China! Aggghhhh! Everyone panic. (And China panic again…) The Chinese stock marketing is crashing, and it’s making everyone nervous. As always, long-term investors with diversified portfolios need do nothing other than sit back and watch. I, for one, like following along the headlines. You know, the ones that swing violently from doom, to fine, and back again. What Is Happening In China? Once upon a time, China was a communist country without much of an economy to speak of. Then, the government decided it wanted to be a big world economy, and in China, what the government wants, the government gets. The Chinese government devoted billions and billions of dollars to building up new cities filled with factories, and then spent even more money subsidizing those endeavors until, everything was made in China. With a new power economy, China also decided to get the other “regular” economy things like banks, lending and even a stock market. Fast forward a few years, and the Chinese stock market has been roaring along. Then, earlier this summer, the Chinese stock market started to drop. The government stepped in and put a stop to it. Unfortunately, real stock markets eventually end up doing what they want …

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Windows 10 and Microsoft’s Earnings

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I don’t usually do a lot of analysis of company moves. I just don’t have the time, and often don’t have the insight. But, as a freelance technology writer, I spend a lot of time looking at technology and technology companies. Microsoft is rolling out its new operating system called Windows 10, and it has some interesting marketing and PR behind it. Free Windows 10 Upgrade The first interesting thing about Windows 10 is that it is free. Well…. kind of… and sort of. If you already own Windows 7  or Windows 8, Microsoft will allow you to upgrade to Windows 10 for free, for up to one year. That is, you have one year from now to upgrade to Windows 10 and get it for free. Free? How does this make sense for a publicly traded, profit motivated company? The first thing to understand is that most customers don’t actually upgrade their operating system when new operating systems come out. For retail customers (that is, people who have their own computers that they use and set up themselves) the process of upgrading an operating system is complicated, and unnecessary. After all, if your computer works now, why bother doing …

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Tech Earnings and Stock Market Moves

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The U.S. stock market is composed of thousands of stocks. Of course, when it comes to moving the overall market, some stocks matter more than others. The biggest stocks, those in the S&P 500, and those in the Fortune 500, have some of the biggest impacts on the overall stock indexes. However, in most cases, the news that comes out of those companies is relatively expected. The exception to this rule are the technology companies. Unlike, say oil companies, or big manufacturing companies, it isn’t always easy to use the economic information surrounding them to accurately predict what will happen, especially when it comes to earnings reports. And, with those same companies forgoing the usual “guidance” that other companies provide, what happens in tech company earnings can be a true market moving surprise. This week saw a negative report from industry titan IBM. IBM is not only a household name technology company, but it is also the second highest weighted component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, commonly referred to as The Dow. The company itself is down over 5 percent so far today, and the Dow is down over 1 percent, or more than 150 points. (Also dragging on …

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What Higher Apple Dividend Means for Investors

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I’m a huge fan of higher dividends. I’m less of a fan of share buybacks, but let’s get there in a minute. Apple Raises Dividend Theoretically, owning a stock means owning a part, or share, of a company. However, if you really break it down, being a shareholder means virtually nothing anymore. For example, in business classes around the country they will tell you that as a shareholder, one of your rights of ownership is voting for the company’s Board of Directors. That’s technically true, but these days, that means nothing. Only a certain number of seats are up for election at one time. Only the candidates that the company’s current management wants are on the ballot. In other words, even if you owned 51% of a company’s stock, your ability to vote would take years to actually affect the company. Your actual avenue for affecting any sort of change is the courts. If you don’t get to “own” the company, then what is your stock actually worth? Well, it is an item of limited supply that others believe have value. It’s the same way U.S. currency works, or Bitcoin. The exception is when a company pays a dividend. Then, …

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Is The Tech Bubble Worse than 2000?

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Mark Cuban made his fortune (well, his second bigger fortune) during the first tech bubble (some call it the internet bubble) when he sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo for $5.4 billion in stock. The real financial genius of Mark Cuban turned out to be not so much in the founding and selling Broadcast.com, but in quickly and effectively diversifying his investments (including all that Yahoo stock) before the bottom fell out of the internet bubble. Is 2015 a Tech Bubble? There have been a lot of people wondering for a few years now if technology is once again in a bubble. You’ve seen the big headlines, of course. Facebook bought Instagram for a billion dollars. Yahoo paid over a billion dollars for Tumblr (even though the company was probably quickly running out of money). These days, having a zero revenue company purchased for a billion dollars is commonplace. The idea is that somehow, someway, those users are worth money, even if the current company has no idea, or even plans, to make any revenue off of them. In many ways, this is like the stock market bubble that built up in the late 1990s, when any website was considered a good …

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Apple iPhone 6 Stock Update

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The real information about the possible impact on Apple stock from the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 plus is in last week’s article, but since Apple released some new data, I’ll do a little update here. In particular, I’m going to a take a look at how some of what is “out there” applies to the things we wanted to watch for to see what, if any, impact the new iPhones have Apple stock. If this doesn’t make sense, it’s because you didn’t read the earlier article about whether now is a good time to invest in Apple stock. Go ahead, click the link, read it, and then hit the back button. We aren’t going anywhere 🙂 The original “Apple Event” where the new iPhones, Apple Watch, and Pay Now were announced was September 9th. iPhone Supply – So, we talked about sales of the iPhone. There wasn’t anybody who thought that Apple would sell anything less that “millions” of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The company released data showing just that on Monday. So, how is the supply of iPhones working out? There’s conservative, there’s underestimated, and there’s artificially creating an iPhone shortage. Which one is is? Apple …

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iPhone 6 and Apple Stock

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I wasn’t going to write this post, but I’ve gotten just enough emails and messages on the subject of what the new iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus means for Apple stock that I thought I’d post some quick thoughts for readers here. First, the old saying in investing is to buy the rumor and sell the news. As with all Wall Street wisdom, this is a gross oversimplification and only partially true. However, consider that the time to buy the POTENTIAL of the new iPhone and Apple Watch was BEFORE the big event. The risk, of course, was that if the information was disappointing, the stock would have likely taken a  downturn. As it was, people, and analysts, seemed pleased with what they saw, and the stock has already reacted positively. What this means, is that if you wanted to invest for the short-term based on the fact that felt Apple’s new technology would be good, you are too late. Now, if you are looking to invest in Apple NOW, for the short-term, your investment will depend on: a) How well the products are received by the real consumer. – Potential risks here involve a new “antenna-gate” type of …

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