The real information about the possible impact on Apple stock from the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 plus is in last week’s article, but since Apple released some new data, I’ll do a little update here. In particular, I’m going to a take a look at how some of what is “out there” applies to the things we wanted to watch for to see what, if any, impact the new iPhones have Apple stock. If this doesn’t make sense, it’s because you didn’t read the earlier article about whether now is a good time to invest in Apple stock. Go ahead, click the link, read it, and then hit the back button. We aren’t going anywhere 🙂
The original “Apple Event” where the new iPhones, Apple Watch, and Pay Now were announced was September 9th.
- iPhone Supply – So, we talked about sales of the iPhone. There wasn’t anybody who thought that Apple would sell anything less that “millions” of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The company released data showing just that on Monday. So, how is the supply of iPhones working out? There’s conservative, there’s underestimated, and there’s artificially creating an iPhone shortage. Which one is is? Apple says it sold 4 million iPhone and iPhone 6 Plus on Friday, the first day of sales. It also says that iPhone 6 Plus sold out “in hours.” So, if you are looking at your iPhone investment, here is what you want to be thinking:
- Is this a “real” shortage? Did Apple really think it would only sell 4 million iPhones or did it do this on purpose to have a “sell out?” As long as there are plenty of iPhones coming fast enough, the artificial shortage is actually smart marketing. It creates more of that “can’t wait” demand.
- Is there a shortage of iPhone 6 (basic)? The company did not break out sales of the iPhone 6 versus the Plus. Steve Jobs never believed in a bigger iPhone, and Apple stood pat on its size for the iPhone 5. Did the company underestimate how much demand there was for a bigger iPhone? That is, does the company have piles of iPhone 6 not-plus laying around because of no demand? That probably wouldn’t hurt too much as long as 6 plus sales stay robust.
- Why only Friday numbers? Traditionally, Apple tells us how much the first weekend sales were. Any particular reason only Friday numbers were released? Did the Saturday and Sunday numbers drop off so much that a report of the weekend numbers would have been disappointing?
Clearly, not enough customers have iPhones in their hands to report on how they are being received, so we can’t evaluate our second thing to watch. However, while no one seems disappointed in the sales numbers, no one seems particularly impressed either.
Knowing Apple no more details will be forthcoming until the next quarter. Will iPhone sales be enough to convince investors that the company has more mojo going forward? Is this stock priced to perfection? That is, how much of a not-amazing quarter can the company have without a big stock slide? Or, is there so much pent up demand for Apple stock that whatever comes out this quarter will be enough to start the next big move up for Apple stock?
Is now the right time to invest in Apple?
It all comes down to whether that 4 million orders was the start of something big, or the only bang we’ll see from this line of products.