US economy

New Home Sales and Post Covid Life

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new home sales housing us

Here is a quick bit of news to inform how you look at investing and personal finance moving into a post-Covid world. New Home Sales Rise New home sales were up 19% annually. That is much more than predicted by analysts. There are few trends pushing the higher home sales and those same trends are worth noting across your investing. Covid knocked down the home buying market to basically zero, as showings were banned. Covid also made people more conservative and protective of their finances. Staying put seemed easier and less risky than trying to move. But… Now, as things move toward a post Covid mindset, buyers are looking for new homes. However, there is a very low supply of existing homes on the market, so one of the easy ways to buy a house is to buy new. That means that what existing homes do go on the market are selling for asking price or higher, and selling quickly because of all the demand. This is good news because that experience will lead others out of their cocoon to sell. This news obviously helps home builders, although that still remains a very risky investment. See Is Zelle Safe on …

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Fed Says 0% Interest For Years

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According to news reports, the Federal Reserve will signal that its interest rate plan will remain unchanged through the end of 2023. These kinds of “leaks” are typically from Fed staffers trying to lessen any shock ahead of the actual Fed meeting. What 0% Interest For Three Years Means For starters, this is both a bold, and a baloney statement. It’s bold in that stating there will be no interest rate hikes for three years, the Fed is making a prediction about the U.S. economy and where it will be going and committing to 0%. It’s baloney, because if things go well coming out of the whole Corona virus thing and the U.S. economy roars ahead in 2021, or 2022, the Fed will just come out with a new statement saying that economic data dictate a new policy direction. So, what is the point of the Fed’s statement? Investors know how to make money. It isn’t about predicting the future, it’s about determining what the risk is and pricing it accordingly against the possible return. This is a lot easier than it sounds. It requires looking at an impossible number of variables, and weighing each one. In the end, the …

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Economy Outlook 2010 2nd Half – June Job Losses

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Recent new that payrolls fell in June here in the U.S. is bad news for the economy, but maybe not as bad as it is being made out by the headlines. Let’s start with what the numbers are and move on to what they mean. As with all economic statistics, employment numbers are compiled from numerous sources which provide an inconsistent snapshot of job activity from around the country. These numbers are made usable by applying a consistent mathematical methodology to them. This results in numbers that may or may not be in any way accurate. What makes the statistics relevant and useful is that because they are always calculated in the same manner looking at the numbers relative to previous statistics is a valid way to analyze growth or contraction in employment. ….More about personal finance tips. Total Nonfarm Payroll US Department of Labor The “employment number” everyone is talking about today is specifically the total nonfarm payroll numbers and is based upon a combination of data gathered from surveying people (the household survey data) and surveying businesses (the establishment survey data). Much like the Nielsen ratings for television, the numbers gleaned from the surveys are then extrapolated to …

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Google Posts Higher Than Expected 3rd Quarter Numbers – Is The Recession Over

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To hear many of the newspapers and other media outlets tell it, Google’s blowout third quarter is the official signal that the recession is over and that businesses are spending again, because customers are spending again, and everything is fine again. The logic goes something like this. Google is not only the largest search engine, but it is also the largest provider of Internet advertising, particularly in America where its ad market share is something like 75% or so. Thus, Google acts as a bit of a proxy for the online advertising market in general. Online advertisers, then, spend money on online advertising only when, a) they have the money available to spend, and b) there are customers out there spending money to attract. So, theory is that since Google’s earnings came in above expectations, then that shows that advertisers are spending more money on online ads, which therefore means that more consumers are spending money online. That’s the idea, anyway. Google Is Not The Economy It is tempting to pronounce everything that Google does and everything that happens to Google as very important to major aspects of American life, including the overall business environment, and the U.S. economy. After …

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