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Active Mutual Funds Suck Compared To Index Funds

March 28, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

You have probably heard before that most mutual funds do not beat the market. Well, it’s true again, or true still, whichever you prefer. The S&P Dow Jones Indexes (yes, they might be a little biased, but they make their data available, and no one says it’s wrong) put out a report called SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2021 in which they state that nearly 80% of all actively managed domestic equity funds lagged the S&P 1500 in 2021. Even worse, 98.6% of actively managed large-cap growth funds failed to beat the S&P 500 Growth. If that sounds too specific for you, 85% of actively managed large-cap funds trailed the S&P 500. The numbers aren’t much better for other categories. This year, the SPVIA leaves no room to “Yeah, but…” by putting to bed the notion that actively managed mutual funds better handle volatility noting that whether it’s 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, or 20-year risk-adjusted returns, active funds underperform the index. Survivorship Bias The reality is that the situation is actually much worse. Every year approximately 5% of actively managed mutual funds disappear via merger or liquidation. If you think mutual fund companies are merging or liquidating their winning funds, then I have …

Are Gold Mutual Funds a Good Way to Invest In Gold?

February 9, 2023March 9, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Recently, a client explained to me how he thought gold was a good investment and protection against inflation. I’m not going to talk today about if he is right or wrong. Instead, I’ll mention that his fabulous do it yourself investment solution was Fidelity’s Gold Fund. Good call? Gold Mutual Fund Holdings Well, it came as quite a shock to him that actual gold is only the sixth biggest investment in the fund. Five bigger investments in the mutual fund are in companies that have something to do with the gold industry. Granted, those companies’ stock prices will be heavily influenced by the price of gold, but certainly not on a one-for-one basis, and it is very possible for gold companies to have problems (and thus lower stock prices) unrelated to gold prices. If the point of investing in gold is to get an alternative investment from the stock market itself, investing in the stock of gold-based companies does not achieve that goal. — Is Bitcoin better than gold for this purpose? Gold companies are very susceptible to environmental lawsuits and regulations. Not to mention, gold happens to be mined in some very unstable countries throughout the world. A military …

Share Buyback Myths

March 4, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Arrgghhh! Share buybacks, or stock repurchases, are a tool that publicly traded companies use to manipulate their shareholders into making them think that they are working for them. Unfortunately, with big business schools still teaching a curriculum that starts with The Wealth of Nations and doesn’t much update from there, there are all too many stock analysts and pundits out there pushing share buybacks as good corporate governance. Returning Capital to Shareholders The gold standard of returning capital to shareholders is paying cash dividends. There is a catch though. You can’t use accounting to create cash that you pay out. The other catch is that shareholders don’t like it when you cut a cash dividend once you start paying it. In other words, if you are going to pay a cash dividend, you better really be in a good position. Share Buybacks Wasting Money Enter share buybacks. A share buyback is where a company takes the extra cash it has and instead of paying a cash dividend, which it can’t play around with, it buys back its own shares. A share buyback is supposed to happen when a company feels its shares are undervalued. That isn’t what really happens anymore. …

Russia Invades Ukraine

February 24, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Thinking about your investments as war starts is kind of cold and calculating, but also perfectly natural. What should I do when Russia invades Ukraine? First, remember, investors do not like uncertainty. Nothing is more uncertain than the course of war. Expect a market downturn with every new development that isn’t the war ending. Second, remember that the markets tend to overreact to initial news because everyone is both reacting, and trying to predict how others will react. Third, remember if you have a well-diversified portfolio, this sort of thing should not affect your investing strategy. Markets go up and markets go down. As far as your long-term investments are concerned it doesn’t matter whether the markets went down because of war, or just a cyclical phase of the market cycle. Do not panic. Do not sell unless you were already planning it. Fourth, if you are actively investing for the long-term in your 401k, IRA, 529 plan, or whatever else, KEEP GOING. This is exactly how dollar cost averaging works for you. Your investments when the markets are down become your buying at the bottom in the future. Do not miss the opportunity. Dollar cost averaging does the work …

Market Correction… Barely

February 23, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

So, the S&P 500 closed low enough on Tuesday to make it 10% lower than its closing high on January 3rd marking, officially at least, a correction in the stock market. If you aren’t seeing a lot of fuss, that’s because it really isn’t that big of a deal. Back on January 3rd, you couldn’t swing a dead cat without hitting someone who thought the market was overvalued, that it had run up too high for too long. So, when the market began a slow sideways, sloping down, trend over a two-month period, nobody really worried about it. It’s as if those prices on January 3rd weren’t real and the market was getting back to reality. Even now, there are plenty of people out there saying that the market is still too high. They might be right, and frankly another two-month long drop down another 10 percent probably won’t be much of a fuss either. After all, while this correction is a market down 10 percent from its peak, it’s a market that is zero percent down from last October, and zero percent down since last July, and still very much up from before that. In other words, unless you …

Is Draft Kings Stock a Buy?

February 19, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Draft Kings stock got hammered on Friday (2/18/22). Why? Well, there are plenty of self-important, chest-puffing, stock analysts’ pieces out there for you to read up about if Draft Kings is a sell, a buy, or hold, but you don’t have to read them. The promise of far too many recent IPO stocks, stocks heading for IPO, and plain old venture capital backed unicorns is “unlimited growth potential.” This is the key to big venture capital raises, and huge IPO numbers. Profits? Nope. Stable customers? Puh-lease. Silicon Valley tech bros and their Wall Street counterparts don’t like being shackled down by old world metrics like GAAP and reality. They prefer knowing exactly how much potentially unlimited limitless is out there. Everything else is for brick and mortar stocks. How Draft Kings Got Unlimited Potential Once upon a time almost no states allowed online gambling and betting. In fact, it was just over two decades ago that the Feds got mad at all the online gambling websites out there pretending they weren’t violating U.S. law by having some part of their operation outside the United States. It took the Feds about a year to scare the banks into cutting off the …

Is Ark Innovation a Scam?

February 18, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Sometimes, a fast rise comes with expectations that are difficult to live up to. Sometimes the person rising fast doesn’t really help matters. Cathie Wood came into the “mainstream” of financial news with a prediction of a huge rise for Tesla. She was “right,” at least over that sample period, and then some guy anointed her best stock picker of 2020. That will attract some eyeballs. But, just like Abby Joseph Cohen rose to fame by always being more optimistic than the next stock market analyst who said, “Are we really sure all of these no-earnings, no-profit, internet stocks should be pulling everything this high?” while the market rose and rose during the internet bubble, being right isn’t always so much being right, as being the last one to ignore the iceberg. Cohen told investors to “buy the dip” as the internet bubble popped, and the market crashed. I hope everyone who thought she was amazing just didn’t listen to her that time… Wood’s problem is that when you become famous for catching unicorn, people only think you’re amazing while you still have one. Since finding another one is almost impossible, there is a tendency to hold on too long, …

AT&T Slashes Dividend

February 4, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

AT&T is making big moves, are they good for AT&T, or bad for AT&T. As everyone knows, I’m a dividend guy. I believe in buying the stocks of good companies and then treating them like bonds, collecting interest payments while ignoring price movements. Usually, when you buy a solid, US company stock with a dividend, that dividend is yours more or less forever. If you buy Apple today (2/4/22) you’ll get about a 0.50% dividend yield. If you like, you can choose to think of it as buying an Apple CD that pays 0.50% with a five-year (or 10, or 3, or whatever) maturity date. When you do that, the daily price movements of Apple stock are irrelevant to your financial plans which count on nothing more than receiving 0.50% interest, and some day getting your principal back (with some risk). AT&T Dividend Cut But, sometimes, a company can cut its dividend. Usually that isn’t a huge surprise. In the case of AT&T, there has been talk of changing (cutting) the dividend for some time now. That being said, a 50% cut is a big deal. As of yesterday, the annual dividend yield for AT&T stock was over 8%. As …

Crypto Collapse?

February 1, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

If you’re way into crypto, you probably don’t care what crypto is trading at today because you know it will be way up tomorrow. This is the Cult of Crypto. For everyone else, what is going on with crypto? Warning I’m just spit balling here folks. Do NOT try and follow me when it comes to cryptocurrency. I’m new. I know nothing. Proceed at your own risk. Analyzing Crypto I’m not going to lie, I’m pretty new to crypto and I while I have some money invested in some different cryptocurrencies, it’s nothing compared to my overall investments. That being said, I’ve been researching, and I’ve seen some things. Let’s do this. First off, crypto moves very much like other assets, including stocks. I don’t mean to say it moves the same as stocks, or even in relation to stocks, but if you looked a crypto price chart, the movements are very similar to what you would see for a chart of a stock like Apple, or the S&P 500, or other securities. Since it moves like a stock, I wonder if it can be analyzed like one. For many years there have been various theories that you can predict …

Market Monday 1-24-2022

January 24, 2022 by Finance Gourmet

Hey, Boys and Girls, here comes an interesting week for investors. The following article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. As always, the best investment strategy for long-term investing is building a well-diversified portfolio based upon your time frame and risk tolerance and then leaving it alone except for annual or semi-annual rebalancing. But… Short-Term Investing January 2022 The week of January 24, 2022 looks fun. And by fun, I mean interesting. The Fed meets on Wednesday. Everyone expects it to raise interest rates to help tame inflation, while also reducing its bond buying to do the same thing. If that weren’t enough, a bunch of big companies are set to report their earnings this week including Apple, Microsoft, and McDonalds. At least we don’t have to worry about options expiring, that was last week. As I write this, the S&P 500 hit the 10% down mark necessary to call the move from January 3 to now a correction. Remember a correction is a 10% reduction, although most people will require the market to close beneath that level to call it a recession. A 20% reduction …