I don’t mean to pick on Jeremy Grantham, I was asked to write something once in my role as a professional financial writer and it got his name stuck in my head. So, whenever I see Mr. Grantham’s name scrolls by on my market news feed, I just have to take a look.
I’ve written about Jeremy Grantham prediction history before. Some of Grantham’s calls were great, and everyone seems to remember, but also about the calls that were flat wrong, early, or just money losing. No one seems to remember those.
So, let’s do the honorable thing. Let’s see how Jeremy Grantham’s predictions work out this time.
Jeremy Grantham Stock Market Prediction
Let’s get the details right.
On September 8, 2022, Jeremy Grantham told the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF) that the S&P 500 could be trading at 3,000 in a year from now. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index traded from around 3,900 in the morning, to around 3,997 in the afternoon, so we’ll call it 3900ish.
If on September 8, 2023, the S&P 500 is trading around 3,000, we can say he is “right” this time.
Of course, Grantham called a crash in 2019. He called an “epic bubble” in January of 2021. The markets were up big both years (and 2020 in between), so he’s not so much calling a downturn, as continuing to call a downturn. If nothing else, the timing hasn’t worked out. Just because you’re “right” doesn’t mean that the markets will do what you think.
You can make up your mind, of course, but to me a man who has been wrong by insisting the market will crash, or a bubble will pop, or whatever for three years doesn’t get credit for being “right” in the fourth year. Your mileage may vary.
Author
Brian is a former Certified Financial Planner and personal finance author. He currently writes for his freelance writing business, ArcticLlama, LLC. This article, and all information on Finance Gourmet, are for educational use only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Contact your financial professionals for advice specific to your situation.