A researcher published some data showing how the individual states are doing recovering jobs lost during the recession. The highlight is that 15 states have not recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession. The interesting part is what that might mean.
(Note: this is from total nonfarm employment and counts both part-time and full-time jobs)
The 15 states that still haven’t recovered all the jobs lost during the recession are:
- Alabama
- Arizona
- Connecticut
- Illinois
- Maine
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Nevada
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- Ohio
- Rhode Island
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
If your life is all about politics, I’m sure you’re rushing to count Democrats and Republicans as a way to “prove” that your side is the best side. Sorry, but that shows little understanding of economics. But, if you insist, there are more Republican governors than Democrat governors on the list. Of course, to be fair, a lot of those states are the so-called purple ones.
A more realistic analysis shows some obvious ones.
Nevada and Arizona were the poster children of over-heated housing markets that collapsed, so it’s natural, they are one the list. On the other hand, Florida was hit pretty hard by the housing bubble but is not on the list.
I can’t honestly remember the last time Alabama or Mississippi had job growth, and part of the issue in Ohio and Illinois is still the fact that manufacturing isn’t what it once was and those states still have a long way to go toward overcoming that.
Another interesting looks shows that none of the states with higher minimum wage laws are on the list either. Maybe raising the minimum wage doesn’t wreck the economy of a state, or maybe it just takes longer.
North Dakota is still a high job growth state overall, despite the fact that the employment picture there is worsening, proving that when it comes to an economy highly dependent upon oil jobs, it isn’t local government, so much as global oil markets that determines how well the job picture looks.
Wisconsin, where Democrats bemoaned Governor Scott Walker’s dismantling of union power, is on the list, but in all fairness is so close to net zero that it actually shows up on the graph in the zero to 2.50% category.
Colorado, Utah, and Texas are all doing very well. None of those states participated much in the housing bubble that smashed the economy, so that probably helped as much as any policy decisions, although neither did Wyoming and it’s very negative.
Of course, the major factor missing from this whole exercise is that there is no data about the KINDS of jobs we are talking about here. For these purposes, a job is a job, so a minimum wage job counts the same for recovery purposes as a high-paying job. Also, part-time jobs count the same as full-time jobs in this analysis.
Also, a deeper look at the trends, shows that every state except West Virginia has added jobs since May of 2014. That means, even where the full recovery isn’t complete, things are still moving in the right direction, and Nevada had one of the largest percentage gains. Maybe that housing bubble burst is finally working its way through.
The reality is that the U.S. economy is too big to be shrugged off by individual states. If America is doing well, most of the states will be too, and vice versa. Still, it’s always interesting to get a look at data.
If construction is any indicator, things in Colorado are going to be booming for a while.