economic statistics

New Home Sales and Post Covid Life

by
new home sales housing us

Here is a quick bit of news to inform how you look at investing and personal finance moving into a post-Covid world. New Home Sales Rise New home sales were up 19% annually. That is much more than predicted by analysts. There are few trends pushing the higher home sales and those same trends are worth noting across your investing. Covid knocked down the home buying market to basically zero, as showings were banned. Covid also made people more conservative and protective of their finances. Staying put seemed easier and less risky than trying to move. But… Now, as things move toward a post Covid mindset, buyers are looking for new homes. However, there is a very low supply of existing homes on the market, so one of the easy ways to buy a house is to buy new. That means that what existing homes do go on the market are selling for asking price or higher, and selling quickly because of all the demand. This is good news because that experience will lead others out of their cocoon to sell. This news obviously helps home builders, although that still remains a very risky investment. See Is Zelle Safe on …

Read More

Stock Market Is a Leading Indicator

by
leading indicator dashboard

Remember, the stock market is a leading indicator. What Is a Leading Indicator? This should probably get its own post, along with what is a lagging indicator, but that isn’t the point of this article, so let’s hit the highlights. At the most basic level there are leading indicators and lagging indicators. A leading indicator is a measurement of what is to come. A lagging indicator is a measurement of what has already happened. At a metaphorical level, the display on your car that says you have 80% of the life of your oil left is a leading indicator. It is measuring the future. Note that it does NOT predict the future. It’s a best guess effort based on available data. Contrast that with a lagging indicator, which measures something in the past. Metaphorically, this might be the sticker on the windshield that says the mileage of the last oil change, or your maintenance log. In the world of economics, most lagging indicators are big data compiled by the government. You may have noticed that the June Labor Report comes out in July. That’s because you have to wait until the end of June for all the data to even …

Read More

Fed Raises Rates On Schedule

by

The Fed has been telegraphing a September (2018) rate hike for quite some time now, and they followed though with another 0.25 increase today. They also anticipate a December rate hike still this year as well. I mentioned last time, this increase marks the end of the “free” rate increases that really didn’t do much to affect the economy as the rates were laughably low so much so that getting any commercially available rate meant a lot of “padding” in the rate from the Fed rates. This rate increase pretty much ends that. From here on out, ever quarter percent increase goes right into the economy as an increasing headwind. Between political uncertainty, a burgeoning trade war, and an economic expansion getting long in the tooth, it’s my opinion that the Federal Reserve is acting recklessly here pushing ahead with its rate increase timeline without any evidence of inflation, and no evidence of wage growth. In other words, the Fed is raising rates despite there being almost no inflation. Traditionally, this does not work out for the American economy. Every time the Fed starts raising rate for reasons OTHER than fighting inflation, the result is a recession, often a big one. …

Read More

Investing For Hurricanes

by

I usually wouldn’t write an article like this, but I’m trying something new, so let’s do this. Do hurricanes affect the stock market, and the overall U.S. economy? How Hurricanes Affect The Stock Market Like the vast majority of stock market moves caused by news items, the actual impact on the stock market tends to be negligible when measured over any period of more than a week or two. In other words, investors love to freak out about the news, only to forget what the story was a short time later. Weather, like hurricanes, is no different. Check out my Ebates review. Consider that an upcoming hurricane, no matter how large, has a relatively small area of impact compared to the country overall. While a hurricane might completely decimate, say, South Carolina, that impact won’t be felt in Ohio, Texas, or pretty much any other state you can name. And, if we are being really honest, the biggest of hurricanes don’t really do much long-term damage unless accompanied by flooding. Whether it’s Hurricane Katrina, or Hurricane Sandy, the damage beyond some power failures, damaged roofs, and fallen tree branches was all done by the flooding. So, if you want to …

Read More

The Fed, Inflation, The Economy

by
is recession coming soon

Here is where things start getting tricky. For the better part of the last decade, the U.S. economy has been on an expansion back from the Great Recession. Various measures of recovery show the economy having regained its footing and moving forward. That’s all well and good, but it puts us in a rather odd spot today. The Coming Recession Economies contract and expand. Period. End of discussion. There is no new normal, not this time, not the last time, not the time before that. Every economy eventually runs out of steam and pulls back. Sometimes it’s a brutal collapse. Sometimes, it’s a more gentle, pull back, but there will be a recession. On a strict time-basis, this economy’s expansion is now very old. The official start of this economic expansion is June 2009. That makes it the second-longest expansion in U.S. history. On the one hand, YEA!, on the other hand, it’s like your dog living to be 17-years old. It’s great, but you know there aren’t many years left. If this expansion makes it to mid-2019, it would be the longest in history. Before you break out the champagne, you probably want to know that the longest expansion …

Read More

Is Inflation Real Finally?

by

The Fed has been raising interest rates over the last few years based on fears of inflation that never seemed to come to pass. But, with monetary policy still very loose, and investors in a good mood pushing the stock market higher and higher (with a few days of correction last week), the rising rates seemed to have no real effect on the economy. Unfortunately, this is the way economic policy works. Nothing happens, until it does, and then you have to hope that you already got it right. Inflation in January The 12-month rate for wholesale inflation rose to 2.7% for January. That’s a pretty big number, and it’s the first one that actually suggests the Fed’s long feared inflation might actually be real. Before the data came out, the markets (and the Federal Reserve’s dot plot) anticipated three rates hikes in 2018. The current rate is 1.5%, and assuming the Fed follows it’s recent history by raising rates a quarter-percent (0.25%) each time, that means that interest rates would end the year at 2.25%. That’s hardly high, historically speaking, but definately higher than anything this market has seen in a long time. Add-in the fact that the Fed …

Read More

December Rate Hike (Again)

by
interest rates federal reserve

The Fed has now completely given up the pretense that it’s interest rate increases have anything to do with its 2% inflation target. Now, it is about tightening up the financial conditions, and in particular trying to put the breaks on the stock market. As noted over at Market Watch Reinhart said current policy is not dissimilar to the steady quarter-point rate hikes seen from 2004-2006. The only thing missing is the phrase “measured pace,” he said. Beginning in the summer of 2004, the Fed raised its short-term rate target from 1.25% to 5.25% in 17 straight quarter-point moves. But the policy failed to trigger tighter financial conditions, Harris noted. And, this is what should be terrifying. From 2004 to 2006, the Fed insisted on raising rates right into what would become the Great Recession. By raising rates when there is no inflation, the Fed becomes a really powerful group of market timers who have decided the stock market (this time, the real estate market last time) is “too high.” Ironically, this all becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. When the Fed’s interest rate hikes finally do get the attention of Wall Street, it comes in the form of a knife slashing …

Read More

Inflation Disappears (Again)

by
no inflation

Update: Yea! It looks like I was right, and everyone has come around. It’s August now, and it looks like those low inflation numbers were neither an aberration, nor temporary. There simply is no inflation, the job market, while full, is not hot, and there is no need to raise rates the rest of 2017, so say we all 🙂 The Fed has been working to raise interest rates because of the specter of inflation. However, with the exception of energy prices, there really hasn’t been much in the way of inflation. As a result, the Fed keeps explaining that they think that all those reports of low inflation were temporary. That all took a bit of knock today as the U.S. Government reported that inflation in June was zero. That’s right, zero, as in no inflation (again). And that comes after the actual 0.1% drop in inflation in May. This is of course, a far cry from the Fed’s so-called target of 2.0% inflation, and calling two months in a row of data temporary starts to look like ignoring data, so the tone has changed. A lot hinges on the July report. Check out my Credit Sesame review. Fed …

Read More

Will The Fed Trigger a Recession?

by

Will the Federal Reserve trigger the next recession? The Fed is meeting and most analysts expect that they will signal that they are making no changes in their plan to move forward with at least two more rate hikes this year despite the weakest first quarter economic growth in three years. More Rate Hikes or Bust The Fed is still trying to work its way out of the “historically low” interest rate environment it has been forced to use to keep the economy upright since the Great Recession a few years ago. The trouble is that despite years of economic expansion, none of those years have come across as particularly strong. In fact, with just two exceptions in the last few years, every time the Fed thought the time was right to raise rates, new, bad economic news came out to derail their plans. This time, however, the Fed looks like it will not be deterred by any run-of-the-mill negative data. Even as inflation falls. Fed officials are blowing off the poor first quarter of economic performance. They say that they fill it is temporary and the economy will recover and continue to grow at a better rate, as soon …

Read More

Best Argument For a Coming Recession

by
no inflation

Recently, I wrote about how lots of various financial analysts and pundits predicting a coming stock market crash or imminent recession are more interested in trying to take credit for making a guess than in accurately predicting what the facts actually support. However, there is one very good case for predicting a recession coming in the next few years. Predicting Recessions It is as likely as not that the next recession will trigger the next stock market correction. Of course, the opposite has been known to happen as well. Most recently, the internet bubble popping took the economy with it, when it caused the bankruptcy and fire sale of dozens of formerly high-spending technology companies and sent their employees flooding onto the market, just when the demand for them vanished. On the other hand, the slow motion implosion of the housing market, and its affects on poorly leveraged, and managed, banking companies, followed by their panicked actions to stay alive, is what caused the so-called Great Recession of the Bush the Younger era. Is Acorns safe? Read this review. These days, most analysts like to predict a stock market crash based on “knowing” that the market is over-valued, or propped up …

Read More