The government puts out all kinds of information in various reports that are published throughout the year. Some of that information is carefully followed and dissected, such as unemployment numbers and economic reports. Others are completely ignored. But, the best ones are the reports that some reporter sees and concocts a grabbing headline around.
Is North Dakota Really the Fastest Growing?
The fun with headlines not withstanding, the biggest issue with many news reports about government numbers is that they provide so little context, to a readership that already has such a weak grasp on the math itself.
The latest “big news” is that North Dakota has the fastest growing county in the U.S. by population. The key piece of information is that this statistic is not only by population, but also by percentage.
For those of you with a firm grasp on the mathematics of statistics, and percentages in general, it comes as no surprise that the biggest percentage gains come the easiest from the lowest starting values. In other words, if you put a turtle in a shopping cart, you can increase his average speed by 1000 percent. If you change the top speed of a race car from 200 mph, to 220 mph, that’s only a 10 percent increase. Still the latter is much a much more impressive speed than being pushed around the grocery store.
Which, brings us to North Dakota, where the fastest growing county in America increased its population by a whopping 10.7 percent. Where are all of these new residents stampeding from? How are their former communities coping with the mass exodus that is filling up counties in North Dakota?
Actually, nobody probably noticed considering a 10.7 percent increase in the population of Williams County, North Dakota is 2,851 people in total.
The population estimate in 2012 was 26,744. For 2013 (the date this report covers) there were 29,595. It’s not that this is insignificant, the impact on Williams County itself if probably profound, but this isn’t a big thing that changes the world, the country, or really even the state, which ranks 48th out of 50 in total population. Enough of an influx statewide and the state might take over 47th place from Alaska, but even if all of North Dakota grew as fast as Williams County, it would take years for them to overtake South Dakota, with its 100,000+ lead in population, for spot number 46.
Whenever the government releases data, it’s a good idea to get the original information straight from the source so you can see all the facts. In this case, you might be more impressed to see Fort Bend County in Texas, while growing only 4.2 percent, making it #9 on the list of fastest growing counties, added 26,512 people, almost as much as the entire population of Williams County.