The Fed

Federal Reserve Holds

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The Federal Reserve Board voted not to raise interest rates at their October meeting, finally realizing that the runaway freight train of interest rate hikes might be more detrimental to economy than the inflation that they are supposedly fighting. Did the Fed Stop Too Late The big question on everyone who actually participates in the economy’s mind is did the Fed stop raising interest rates too late. Already the housing market is seizing up as home buyers realize they have been priced out of homes by higher interest rates and sellers find that they no longer can sell their home in a weekend, or maybe within several weeks. Higher food prices are still cutting deep, but so are those credit card bills. Variable rate credit cards and HELOCs have spent the last year delivering higher and higher payments to borrowers. Many borrowers who were perfectly fine servicing their debt suddenly find themselves staring down bankruptcy. And we all know what happens when a huge chunk of America goes and declares bankruptcy. The only high point in all of this is rising wages and low unemployment are keeping more people above water than in the past. In states with rising minimum …

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Interest Rates, Mortgages, HELOCs, Credit Cards, and the Fed

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Originally published 12/17/2008, this post is being kept for its historical value, as the economy was still reeling from the housing market collapse and subsequent market swoon. For fun (and education), pull out your favorite charting tool and set the dates to either side of this date. This rate cut will mark the bottoming of the stock market (by March of 2009). Days like yesterday and today are why I write the Finance Gourmet.  For those of you who didn’t see it, the Federal Reserve, or Fed cut interest rates to between 0% and 0.25%.  All day today, the media has been droning on about what it means for consumers, homeowners, and the economy.  Unfortunately, they are in such a hurry to do so, that they skip over all the details.  So, here it is, what the Fed’s rate cut means to you. What To Do Now That Interest Rates Have Been Cut After reading the above, you should be aware that there are no quick and easy, or automatic solutions coming based on this rate cut.  Frankly, that isn’t really what it is supposed to do.  But, that doesn’t mean there is nothing you can do. First, don’t count …

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Fed Raises – Did It Break the Economy?

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I’m not an economist and I don’t play one on TV. I haven’t even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but I have been involved in finance for a long time now, and I’m old enough to have a pretty good memory. Add that to a lot of research over the years as a freelance financial writer for a lot of publications and websites, and I have an informed opinion, if not a professional one. Fed Raises Rates 0.75% Again The Fed raised interest rates again, another big 0.75% hike. So, here is the punchline. The Fed has raised interest rates a total of 1.5% in just two months. Look up the last time the Fed raised rates that quickly. Go ahead. I’ll wait. It was the 1980s and inflation was crazy rampant. Every economist older than 50 had drilled into their head that inflation was more of a problem than a recession because that is what is true for Wall Street. Unfortunately, that is not necessarily what is good for Main Street, and by extension, the markets. Last time the Fed raised rates was from 2016 to 2019. That increase was a nice gentle 2.25% increase over three years. …

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Blaming the Fed

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Selective amnesia and analysts dying to be “right” is contributing to a flood of inaccurate articles seeking to blame the Fed. I saw this in my Twitter feed this morning and I just couldn’t let it go by. It’s filled with the kind of half-truths and misinformation that builds an analyst’s career, unfortunately, but that doesn’t make it true. Here we go. According to this tweet, The Fed spent 12 years creating an “everything bubble,” a term so bizarre that it requires quotes. Oh, and the Fed didn’t spend 12 years creating this so-called everything bubble. Oh, and before we start pointing fingers, until THIS YEAR neither this analyst, nor almost any other was asking for the Fed to tighten monetary policy because the economy was teetering on a cliff and every bit of the stimulus was required to prevent the Great Recession II, or worse. Yep. For exactly, ONE MONTH, inflation has been a bit crazy. Too bad the graph they posted as “evidence” is so far zoomed out that you can’t see what really happened. Maybe they couldn’t find one that showed more recent events. Oh, wait! Here’s one. The crazy, reckless Fed that has been pumping up …

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Fed Raising Rates 2022 Inflation and Economy

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At all times the Federal Reserve’s Open Market committee has a dual task. One task is to guard against inflation. The other task is to not make the economy implode. In most cases, this isn’t as hard as it sounds as long as you have strong Federal Reserve bankers who don’t cave to Wall Street’s pressure (or dance like monkeys to in the first place.) For 2022, The Fed has one of the tricky times. This is what Wall Street pressure looks like: December payroll data showed a far fewer than Wall Street said it would be addition of 199,000 to payrolls, but wages did increase 4.7% year over year. There is a very big catch here. Remember that the economy got messed up rather good with Covid and it really isn’t done with Covid, so all of these numbers have to be taken against the fact that last year was not good and this year isn’t so much a raging economy as it is putting the pieces that fell off the board back up on it. Don’t forget to read our Zelle review. That being said, inflation is up, even compared to pre-Covid and you don’t want to fall …

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Will Fed Raise Rates Sooner Than Expected?

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There are several economists out there predicting that rising inflation will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than project. In fact, half of the Fed Board was talking about a rate increase in 2022 instead of the previously telegraphed 2024. But, does that mean The Fed will raise rates sooner than previously stated? Inflation Isn’t Coming All of this is predicated on inflation rising. The concern right now is that prices have been rising this year. This is all true, but this is October and that means the holiday shopping season is upon us, and chances are it won’t look very good come January. We’ve already seen the job reports showing that job growth is slowing despite a supposed worker shortage. Unemployed people spend a lot less at Christmas. But, there is more than that. Employed people who know unemployed people spend less as well due to a fear that they could soon be unemployed as well. Add to that reports that there are going to be supply chain problems, and that container ships have to wait excessive times to get their cargo unloaded by dock workers on the west coast and you end up with a …

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Second Term

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I don’t like to write about politics, and certainly not speculation about politics, but the potential announcement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell getting a second term is interesting. First off, Powell, is a Trump appointee. That gets people mad in certain quarters, like the Postmaster guy. However, Powell is a solid, seasoned hand acting as Fed Chief, and no one really cares who appointed him. In fact, Powell has done such a good job keeping the economy floating with minimum rocking that the only reason people were thinking there might be someone new was in order to make a “historic” appointment of someone who wasn’t a white guy — or white woman, since Janet Yellen already broke that ceiling. Now, it looks like President Biden has enough fights to pick with Congress, including ones within his own party (Dems really don’t know how to win, do they?). So, a sure thing like renominating Powell seems like a good way to be able to focus energy elsewhere. And, lucky for everyone else, he’s a good choice for the job. Check out my review of Acorns investing here. Then, look for my Capital One Miles redemption chart. You can read about …

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Federal Reserve Meeting Notes Meaning

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The Federal Reserve meets once a quarter. After that meeting, they announce what, if any changes, they have made to the Fed’s interest rate policy. At the last meeting, there were no changes to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate targets. The Federal Reserve meeting notes refine the details of the main Fed announcement. Fed’s Meeting Notes Later, after they have been reviewed and made viewable for the public, the Fed releases the notes from it’s meeting. Financial analysts and market pundits then parse these notes for clues to the Fed’s thinking. This time, everyone is looking toward how the notes take about bond-buying tapering. What does this mean? The short version is that when the economy went so bad back during the Great Recession following the real estate market crash, the Fed had to do more than just cut interest rates to stabilize the economy. In my opinion, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernake saved the US economy from a hard recession by flooding the market with liquidity and saying that he would keep doing it for as long as it takes. Check out my Acorns review is Acorns Legit? Basically, as long as it takes, has never really come. One …

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Fed Stays Steady

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The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, BUT they are beginning to taper off their bond buying program which will soak up some of the cheap money floating around out there and gently tighten the money supply. This is a smart move that helps reduce inflationary pressures while at the same time avoiding strangling the recovery growing out of the pandemic recession.

Negative Interest Rates and The Fed

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Like any type of news, sensational, click-bait news draws in a lot of clicks for financial websites. Unfortunately, this can lead to a lot of confusion, especially for folks who only read the headlines. I can often tell when this happens because my questions fill up with vaguely understood concepts and concerns about unlikely situations and issues. This is happening more and more with the topic of negative interest rates. Negative Interest Rates What are negative interest rates? Let’s start with what are negative rates. The concept is simple on its face. Interest rates are normally, “positive.” The borrower pays a (positive) interest rate on a loan to the lender. Or, in the case of a savings account, the bank pays a (positive) interest rate to the account holder. In a world of negative interest rates, this would theoretically reverse. The lender would pay the borrower to take out a loan, and the account holder would pay the bank to keep their money. If this sounds bizarre, you are right, and it wouldn’t really happen. — We’ll get to that in a moment. More abstractly, The Federal Reserve Bank pays banks a small amount of interest to hold deposited funds …

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