- - Page 15 of 23 The Finance Gourmet

Stock Market Back Up Over 18,000

April 19, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

I spend a lot of time telling people not to read too much into the short-term moves of the stock market, no matter how compelling the narrative is at the time. In the past 12 months, there have been two pretty significant meltdowns attributable mainly to investors worried about China or Europe, or whatever. I plan to develop a system that takes a screenshot each day of Marketwatch and CNN Money, or others just so that you can scroll through the comings and goings of each day. I can clearly remember numerous articles as the markets were falling in January and February about how this was only the beginning of a massive collapse, and others like that. Now, just a few months later, the same website is publishing articles about the market being back up above 18,000 for the first time since July last year. The point I’m making is that with the value of a little hindsight, or just a longer term view, it is clear that a lot of the recent volatility is a result of a market that went too high, too fast, for too long without any sort of correction. A couple of correcting down blips …

Model 3 Pre-Orders and Tesla Stock

April 4, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

Tesla has had a big weekend. At last count, according to Elon Musk’s Twitter account, there were 276,000 pre-orders for the new Tesla Model 3. An earlier tweet referenced an average order price, with options, of $42,000. Musk is Tesla’s CEO, so this counts a public disclosure of material facts of a publicly traded company. As you can imagine, there is a lot of jabbering about what this does or does not mean for Tesla. Let’s look at the facts to get an idea of just how much good news there is, or is not, going on here. First, as some have pointed out, multiplying $42,000 times 276K pre-orders comes out to over $11 billion in Model 3 pre-orders. That would be by far the biggest income Tesla has ever had. However, that is nothing more than a paper calculation. How much of that money Tesla actually sees depends upon a lot factors, including how many people decide to cancel their fully refundable pre-order. That being said, pre-ordering a Model 3 Tesla requires registering, and a $1,000 deposit. While the deposit is fully refundable, it is money paid. In other words, this isn’t a bunch of internet kids running bots to …

Oil Drillers and Oil Industry Outlook

March 22, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

There was recently a fascinating presentation regarding the state of the oil industry. The presentation is from Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard. Schlumberger is one of the biggest oil drillers in the business, so he knows what he’s talking about. The surprising candor of this oil industry outlook presentation is what makes it so fascinating. In the presentation, Kibsgaard notes that unlike previous oil price implosions that were caused by what he calls “demand events,” this one is caused by OPEC’s decision to protect its market share rather than protecting the price per barrel. This creates a very different world for the oil industry. He goes on to describe what his particular company is looking at doing in the future. For our purpose though, what is interesting the confirmation that things really are different this time. Boom and Bust in Oil The oil industry is no stranger to the boom and bust cycle. The oil bust of the 1980s hammered the local Denver economy until the internet bubble managed to rescue the city. The resulting merger and consolidation turned one-word household name energy companies into combined energy companies such as ExxonMobil (formerly two separate companies Exxon and Mobil). In the end, however, …

Market Still Crashing… Wait, No It Isn’t

March 18, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

Still waiting for that market implosion everyone was certain was going to happen a few months ago? Looks like you’ll have to wait a little longer. I usually have to wait a little more to pull out the “I told you so,” on the stock market being a constant swirl of ups and downs that should be ignored by long-term investors. Long-term investors, of course, should be sticking to their long-term plans and only making adjustments to rebalance their portfolios. This is often easier said than done. Usually, in the middle of a down period, people start showing up or calling to tell me that they were, “right,” and that they pulled all of their money out of the stock market and now they weren’t losing anymore money and I am dumb for saying they would be better in the long run if they had just stayed put. They never call me to tell me they put their money back in right before things start going up, but that’s another matter *eyeroll*. This super, mega, down, recession is coming, batten down the hatches, plunge was too short for that to happen this time. Market Back To January 1 Levels Right …

Stock Market Does What It Does

March 4, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

Remember when the sky was falling, China was blowing up, and the stock market was going to go straight to zero and there was going to be another super recession? You should. It was only a couple of weeks ago. But, as some of the calmer bloggers, (ahem) and other financial publication that don’t rely on massive waves of panicked clicks, pointed out, the stock market was actually due for a little breather after running almost straight up for a very long time. In fact, in the long run, it was probably much better for everyone (as long as they didn’t panic) for the stock market to pause for a while. As an added bonus it made the Fed stop its blind, headlong rush into raising interest rates because that is what good hawks do, and caused them to look at the actual data instead, which suggested that while the U.S. economy is definitely moving up, the movement isn’t necessarily strong. Most importantly, there are still virtually no signs of inflation and instead, it looks like there are some weak spots hiding in the otherwise decent economy. Stick To Your Plan As always, the worst time to make investment decisions is during …

Stock Market Up to Start Week

February 22, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

And this week (shakes magic-8 ball) the stock market will start up! The financial news sites are all going with: because oil prices are rising. I keep telling myself I won’t write any more posts about the stock market volatility that’s going on right now, but it’s hard not to when there are so many stories out there telling you why now is the time to buy, or now is the time to sell, or how there is a recession coming, or how there isn’t, and, “Hey, squirrel! Let’s sell and buy!” Today. the U.S. stock market happens to be up. The Dow is up over 200 points, or 1.38 percent. It is still down for the year, but don’t look now, another week or two like this, and we’ll be right back where we started in January. What do they say, “A lot of sound a fury signifying nothing?” As always, daily volatility tends to be a function of computer trading algorithms rather than actual investor sentiment. The truth is that things are still dicey. The Fed doesn’t know if it should or should not raise interest rates again… sooner or later…. For extra fun, the inflation numbers look …

What Happens When My Stock Goes Down?

January 27, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

Yesterday I wrote about how Apple stock could be considered a dividend stock by some investors. Later that day, after the stock markets closed, Apple reported its first quarter results. (Apple, like many companies uses a fiscal year, instead of a calendar year. The first quarter for Apple runs from October to December.) The results were met with disappointment by the markets and the stock is down this morning. This triggered an email from someone asking if Apple was now a bad stock to own or buy, and that felt like the beginnings of an article I’ve been meaning to write for a while. Remember you should not be buying individual stocks until your retirement plan, college plans, and savings plans are fully funded and on track. What Happens When a Stock Price Falls? One of the most difficult things for non-professional finance people to grasp is the difference between actual losses and paper losses. An example can be helpful. Apple stock was trading at about $100 per share yesterday when I published the post about the dividend yield moving past the psychological 2 percent dividend yield mark. Although I didn’t buy any stock on that day, let’s pretend I did. …

Stock Market Reality Check and When To Panic

January 25, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

I’ve written a few articles recently about the start of the year stock market freak out and about not panicking when the stock market makes sudden moves. In response I’ve heard from people about if there ever is a time to panic, and if there isn’t, if there is ever a right time to sell. The problem is that there is some knowledge missing from these questions. So, here is a reality check on the current stock market situation, and some advice on when to panic and when to sell your stocks. Long-Term Diversified Portfolio Let’s start from the beginning. There are a lot of different kinds of investing. When people forget this fact, it often causes them to make incorrect decisions. Remember, every decision you make should be consistent with your investing strategy and financial plan. So, for those of you investing for the long-term, particularly for retirement, with a decade or more to go, your reactions should be very different from someone who is investing for other reasons, or for a shorter time frame. As a long-term retirement investor, your strategy should be to construct a well diversified portfolio that matches your return needs with your risk tolerance. …

What Is Middle Class?

January 20, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

Who is middle class in America, and why does it matter? Middle Class Politics One favorite political maneuver is to come out in favor of the middle class. There are a lot of reasons for this. First, and foremost is that numerous studies have shown that no matter how much money they actually make, most Americans think that they are middle class. Thus, when a politician says they care about the middle class, most people make the assumption that the politician is talking about them. On a secondary level, the value in favoring the middle class, is that there is a deeply American assumption that the middle class is where you will find the normal, hard-working American people. Those who are wealthy, can be assumed to be either exceptionally lucky, exceptionally hard working, or exceptionally smart, depending on who you ask. Realistically, it is all three. One need only look at the number of seemingly less than intelligent, or motivated, celebutaunt children who just luckily have wealthy parents, compared to the rags to riches stories of various immigrants or sons and daughters who were born into poverty. Whereas, the poor are the exceptionally unlucky, unhard working, or unintelligent. The fact that …

Market Volatility Continues as Beginning of 2016

January 15, 2016 by Finance Gourmet

I’ve written a few articles now about the volatility in the U.S. stock market, especially as it pertains to reacting to China’s stock market (and the time before that too). A few years ago, the trouble was Greece, if you can remember that far back. Sometimes, it seems like last month is ancient history to market watchers. I’ve also written about how overreacting to bad news isn’t wise, but, what is really going on with the stock market, and what should real investors think? America vs The World Stock Market First, it is important to notice the difference between the American stock market reacting to news about the U.S. and the American economy, and reacting to the news and stock markets of other economies. While world economies are more intertwined than ever, the circumstances in China are not the same as they are here. While the Chinese economy is stuck in a tricky place thanks to ongoing government intervention, and rising debt loads, the U.S. economy actually could probably use a bit of government help. The markets don’t like uncertainty, though, and a lot of what you are seeing in the stock market today, and other days, is nothing more than …